IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/emfitr/v58y2022i2p584-600.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Systemic Risk Measures and Macroeconomy Forecasting: Based on FQGLS Estimation with Structural Break

Author

Listed:
  • Guojin Chen
  • Yanzhen Liu
  • Yu Zhang

Abstract

In this article, we study the forecasting power of 12 different systemic risk measures on the macroeconomic shocks in China. We employ the FQGLS estimation with structural break. The violation of classical assumptions is detected, and the significant difference between OLS and FQGLS estimations further highlights the importance of model specification. The combined forecasts significantly outperform the historical mean in out-of-sample predictions, although most of the individual forecasts cannot. That is, the macroeconomic shock is predictable by the systemic risk measures, but the noise overwhelms the signal coming from real systemic risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Guojin Chen & Yanzhen Liu & Yu Zhang, 2022. "Systemic Risk Measures and Macroeconomy Forecasting: Based on FQGLS Estimation with Structural Break," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 584-600, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:58:y:2022:i:2:p:584-600
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2020.1807323
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2020.1807323
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1540496X.2020.1807323?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:58:y:2022:i:2:p:584-600. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MREE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.