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Measuring Uncertainty in Export Destinations And Its Impact on Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Guoliang Chen
  • Jianchun Fang
  • Giray Gozgor
  • Sercan Pekel

Abstract

Using data from the World Uncertainty, the World Trade Uncertainty, and the World Pandemic Uncertainty indices for 142 countries, this paper introduces three new indicators for measuring Turkey’s export markets’ uncertainty from 1996Q1 to 2021Q3. The indicators measure uncertainty in Turkey’s export destinations. After introducing three indicators of uncertainty for export markets, we investigate their effects on economic performance. It is found that all uncertainty indicators are negatively related to economic growth. Specifically, an increase in export destinations’ uncertainty leads to a slower growth rate of two quarters. Pandemic-induced uncertainty also negatively affects economic growth. The implications for the role of risks and uncertainties, such as financial, geopolitical, and political risks, are also discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Guoliang Chen & Jianchun Fang & Giray Gozgor & Sercan Pekel, 2022. "Measuring Uncertainty in Export Destinations And Its Impact on Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(15), pages 4231-4246, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:58:y:2022:i:15:p:4231-4246
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2022.2068412
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    Cited by:

    1. Pengfei Cheng & Mengzhen Wang & Baekryul Choi, 2024. "IPR Protection and Sustainable Economic Growth: Domestic R&D Level and International R&D Trade Cooperation Perspective," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(14), pages 1-16, July.
    2. Sudeshna Ghosh & Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo, 2024. "The effect of world policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk factors on export-led growth for Japan: novel insights by wavelet local multiple correlation methods," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(4), pages 3605-3633, August.

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