Corporate Misconduct and Analyst Forecasting Accuracy: Evidence from China

This paper studies the impact of corporate misconduct on analyst forecasting accuracy in emerging markets. Using a unique dataset from China, we find that analyst forecasting accuracy decreases when firms are involved in corporate misconduct. We address potential endogeneity by employing the propensity score matched (PSM) procedure and IV regression, and our findings are proven robust. Channel analyses show that corporate misconduct is related to the increased earnings management, weak internal control quality, the reduction in site visits by institutional investors and coverage by star analysts, indicating that our results are driven by a worsened information environment for analysts. Further tests reveal that firms who commit more corporate misconduct, more severe misconduct, or information disclosure violations result in less reliable analyst forecasting accuracy. Thus, our research provides policy implication by showing that corporate irregularities reduce information efficiency of capital market and disrupt the market integrity.