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A Forecasting Analysis on China‘S Energy Use and Carbon Emissions Based on A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

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  • Zhengquan Guo
  • Xingping Zhang
  • Yihong Ding
  • Xiaonan Zhao

Abstract

This paper constructs a dynamic computable general equilibrium model to forecast China‘s economy, energy use, and carbon emissions. The fossil energy sector and clean electricity sector are disaggregated in detail to obtain robust results. The analysis results show that the industry and energy structure will obviously change along with a high and stable economy growth trend by 2030. Although energy intensity and carbon emission intensity in China will decrease markedly, carbon emissions will keep rising and will not peak by 2030. Therefore, China‘s government must adopt effective measures to realize the commitment goal.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhengquan Guo & Xingping Zhang & Yihong Ding & Xiaonan Zhao, 2021. "A Forecasting Analysis on China‘S Energy Use and Carbon Emissions Based on A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(3), pages 727-739, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:57:y:2021:i:3:p:727-739
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2019.1597704
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    Cited by:

    1. Weijiang Liu & Min Liu & Tingting Liu & Yangyang Li & Yizhe Hao, 2022. "Does a Recycling Carbon Tax with Technological Progress in Clean Electricity Drive the Green Economy?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(3), pages 1-18, February.
    2. Weijiang Liu & Min Liu & Yangyang Li & Tingting Liu, 2024. "How to promote China's green economic development? The combination effects of consumption tax and carbon tax policies," Energy & Environment, , vol. 35(3), pages 1374-1395, May.
    3. Jing Wang & Yubing Xu, 2022. "How Does Digitalization Affect Haze Pollution? The Mediating Role of Energy Consumption," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(18), pages 1-15, September.
    4. Wei Wei & Ling He & Xiaofan Li & Qi Cui & Hao Chen, 2022. "The Effectiveness and Trade-Offs of Renewable Energy Policies in Achieving the Dual Decarbonization Goals in China: A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(11), pages 1-18, May.
    5. Xu, Yingying, 2021. "Risk spillover from energy market uncertainties to the Chinese carbon market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).

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