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Does Belt and Road Initiative Hurt Node Countries? A Study from Export Perspective

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  • Haiou Mao
  • Guanchun Liu
  • Chengsi Zhang
  • Rao Muhammad Atif

Abstract

The existing studies on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) primarily explain its impact on China’s trade or foreign direct investment, whereas its impact on node countries’ export performance to China has not been examined. By considering the BRI as external policy shock and incorporating “Five Connection” indicators in the model, this article describes the mechanism and impact of the BRI on node countries’ exports to China. By using propensity score matching and a difference-in-difference approach, we tackle the endogeneity problem caused by self-selecting into the BRI node-country group. The estimates indicate that the BRI has an overall positive effect on node countries’ exports to China with an upward trend. The study also observes that facility connection, trade barriers reduction, financial integration, and people-to-people bond are efficient ways to enhance node countries’ exports. Further, the regional heterogeneity analysis finds a smaller positive effect on North African and on central and East Asian economies, while higher on other regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Haiou Mao & Guanchun Liu & Chengsi Zhang & Rao Muhammad Atif, 2019. "Does Belt and Road Initiative Hurt Node Countries? A Study from Export Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(7), pages 1472-1485, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:55:y:2019:i:7:p:1472-1485
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2018.1553711
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    Cited by:

    1. Weiping Li & Saite Lu, 2024. "Assessing Structural Transformation and the Potential Impacts of Belt and Road Initiative Projects in Africa," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 36(3), pages 548-570, June.
    2. Jianhong Qi & Kam Ki Tang & Da Yin & Yong Zhao, 2020. "Remaking China’s Global Image with the Belt and Road Initiative: Is the Jury Out?," Discussion Papers Series 635, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    3. Holger Görg & Haiou Mao, 2022. "Does the belt and road initiative stimulate Chinese exports? Evidence from micro data," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(7), pages 2084-2100, July.
    4. Görg, Holger & Mao, Haiou, 2020. "Does the belt and road initiative stimulate chinese exports? The role of state-owned enterprises," KCG Working Papers 21, Kiel Centre for Globalization (KCG).
    5. Zhang, Yifei & Fang, Heyang, 2020. "Does China's overseas lending favor One Belt One Road countries?," MPRA Paper 97954, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Wang, Hui & Si, Ieongcheng & Chen, Zhihua, 2024. "Does the Belt and Road Initiative promote China and the countries along the route to reconstruct the global value chain? Evidence from value-added trade," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 63-83.
    7. Jin, Gang & Shen, Kunrong & Jiang, Yue, 2021. "Does the Belt and Road Initiative cause more troubled Chinese overseas investments?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 217-232.
    8. Huaping Sun & Bless Kofi Edziah & Xiaoqian Song & Anthony Kwaku Kporsu & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2020. "Estimating Persistent and Transient Energy Efficiency in Belt and Road Countries: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-19, July.
    9. Zhang, Yifei & Fang, Heyang, 2019. "Does China's overseas lending favors One Belt One Road countries?," MPRA Paper 97785, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Yang, Yiwen & Lin, Chinho, 2021. "Impact of the “Belt and Road Initiative” on machinery production networks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Yang, Zhenbing & Chen, Zhuo & Shao, Shuai & Yang, Lili, 2022. "Unintended consequences of additional support on the publications of universities: Evidence from China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    12. Koffi Dumor & Li Yao & Jean-Paul Ainam & Edem Koffi Amouzou & Williams Ayivi, 2021. "Quantitative Dynamics Effects of Belt and Road Economies Trade Using Structural Gravity and Neural Networks," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(3), pages 21582440211, July.

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