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Predicting Prepayment and Default Risks of Unsecured Consumer Loans in Online Lending

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  • Zhiyong Li
  • Ke Li
  • Xiao Yao
  • Qing Wen

Abstract

Online lending provides a means of fast financing for borrowers based on their creditworthiness. However, borrowers may undermine this agreement due to early repayment or default, which are two major concerns for the platform and lenders, since both affect the profitability of a loan. While default risk is frequently focused on credit scoring literature, prepayment has received much less attention, despite a higher prepayment rate being observed in online lending when compared with default. This article uses multivariate logistic regression to predict the probability of both the underlying prepayment and default risks. Real consumer lending data of 140,605 unsecured loans provides evidence that these two events have their own distinct patterns. We consider systemic risk by incorporating macroeconomic factors in modeling and address the influence of economic conditions, which are lessons learnt from the last financial crisis. The out-of-sample validation has shown that both prepayment and default can be accurately predicted. This article highlights the necessity of regulations on prepayment given the fast growing online lending market.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhiyong Li & Ke Li & Xiao Yao & Qing Wen, 2019. "Predicting Prepayment and Default Risks of Unsecured Consumer Loans in Online Lending," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(1), pages 118-132, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:55:y:2019:i:1:p:118-132
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2018.1479251
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dongwoo Kim, 2023. "Can investors’ collective decision-making evolve? Evidence from peer-to-peer lending markets," Electronic Commerce Research, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 1323-1358, June.
    2. Li, Aimin & Li, Zhiyong & Bellotti, Anthony, 2023. "Predicting loss given default of unsecured consumer loans with time-varying survival scores," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Li, Zhiyong & Li, Aimin & Bellotti, Anthony & Yao, Xiao, 2023. "The profitability of online loans: A competing risks analysis on default and prepayment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(2), pages 968-985.
    4. Jiaming Liu & Jiajia Liu & Chong Wu & Shouyang Wang, 2024. "Enhancing credit risk prediction based on ensemble tree‐based feature transformation and logistic regression," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 429-455, March.
    5. Chen, Pei-Fen & Lo, Shihmin & Tang, Hai-Yuan, 2022. "What if borrowers stop paying their loans? Investors’ rates of return on a peer-to-peer lending platform," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 359-377.
    6. Chen, Shou & Jiang, Xiangqian & He, Hongbo & Zhou, Xi, 2020. "A pricing model with dynamic repayment flows for guaranteed consumer loans," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 1-11.
    7. Joseph L. Breeden, 2024. "An Age–Period–Cohort Framework for Profit and Profit Volatility Modeling," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-23, May.

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