IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/emfitr/v54y2018i1p41-53.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting the Term Structure of South African Government Bond Yields

Author

Listed:
  • Hui-Chu Shu
  • Jung-Hsien Chang
  • Ting-Ya Lo

Abstract

This article uses the parsimonious dynamic Nelson–Siegel model to fit the yields of South African government bonds. We find that the dynamic Nelson–Siegel model has good fitting abilities for all maturities. We further forecast the term structure by seven different dynamic Nelson–Siegel models with time series models. We find that the DNS–VAR–GARCH model is useful for forecasting the short-term rates, the DNS–VAR best predicts the medium-term rates, and the DNS–RW best predicts the long-term rates. In addition, the dynamic Nelson–Siegel models provide better forecasts of yield data than a random walk model, especially for the 12-month forecasting horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Hui-Chu Shu & Jung-Hsien Chang & Ting-Ya Lo, 2018. "Forecasting the Term Structure of South African Government Bond Yields," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(1), pages 41-53, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:54:y:2018:i:1:p:41-53
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2016.1225572
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1225572
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1540496X.2016.1225572?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2021. "The South African–United States sovereign bond spread and its association with macroeconomic fundamentals," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(4), pages 499-525, December.
    2. João Frois Caldeira & Rangan Gupta & Muhammad Tahir Suleman & Hudson S. Torrent, 2021. "Forecasting the Term Structure of Interest Rates of the BRICS: Evidence from a Nonparametric Functional Data Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(15), pages 4312-4329, December.
    3. Johannes W. Fedderke, 2020. "Is the Phillips curve framework still useful for understanding inflation dynamics in South Africa," Working Papers 10142, South African Reserve Bank.
    4. Carlos Castro-Iragorri & Juan Felipe Peña & Cristhian Rodríguez, 2021. "A Segmented and Observable Yield Curve for Colombia," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 10(2), pages 179-200.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:54:y:2018:i:1:p:41-53. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MREE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.