IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/emfitr/v53y2017i3p521-533.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Chinese Stock Market Volatility With Economic Variables

Author

Listed:
  • Weixian Cai
  • Jian Chen
  • Jimin Hong
  • Fuwei Jiang

Abstract

This article investigates the forecasting power of economic variables for the Chinese stock market volatility. We find that several economic variables strongly forecast the future monthly volatilities for the aggregate Chinese stock market and a number of industry portfolios. The forecasting power of economic variables remains strong in out-of-sample setting. The predictability of Chinese stock market volatility can be further improved when combining information in all economic variables together.

Suggested Citation

  • Weixian Cai & Jian Chen & Jimin Hong & Fuwei Jiang, 2017. "Forecasting Chinese Stock Market Volatility With Economic Variables," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 521-533, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:53:y:2017:i:3:p:521-533
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2015.1093878
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/1540496X.2015.1093878
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/1540496X.2015.1093878?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Dongxin & Zhang, Li & Li, Lihong, 2023. "Forecasting stock volatility with economic policy uncertainty: A smooth transition GARCH-MIDAS model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Fiza Qureshi & Ali M. Kutan & Habib Hussain Khan & Saba Qureshi, 2019. "Equity fund flows, market returns, and market risk: evidence from China," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(1), pages 48-71, March.
    3. Haizhong Wang & Hong Yuan & Xiaolin Li & Huaxi Li, 2019. "The impact of psychological identification with home-name stocks on investor behavior: an empirical and experimental investigation," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 47(6), pages 1109-1130, November.
    4. Fang, Libing & Yu, Honghai & Xiao, Wen, 2018. "Forecasting gold futures market volatility using macroeconomic variables in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 249-259.
    5. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2020. "Economic indicators and stock market volatility in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    6. Yi, Li & Liu, Zilan & He, Lei & Qin, Zilong & Gan, Shunli, 2018. "Do Chinese mutual funds time the market?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 1-19.
    7. Libing Fang & Baizhu Chen & Honghai Yu & Yichuo Qian, 2018. "The importance of global economic policy uncertainty in predicting gold futures market volatility: A GARCH‐MIDAS approach," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(3), pages 413-422, March.
    8. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2019. "Forecasting the KOSPI200 spot volatility using various volatility measures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 514(C), pages 156-166.
    9. Yu Wei & Lan Bai & Kun Yang & Guiwu Wei, 2021. "Are industry‐level indicators more helpful to forecast industrial stock volatility? Evidence from Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers index," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 17-39, January.
    10. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Huan & Dong, Xiaodi, 2020. "Forecasting Chinese industry return volatilities with RMB/USD exchange rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
    11. Md. Qamruzzaman & Ananda Bardhan & Summatun Nasya, 2020. "Nexus between Remittance, Nonperforming Loan, Money Supply, and Financial Volatility: An Application of ARDL," International Journal of Applied Economics, Finance and Accounting, Online Academic Press, vol. 8(1), pages 11-29.
    12. Cheng, Hang & Shi, Yongdong, 2020. "Forecasting China's stock market variance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:53:y:2017:i:3:p:521-533. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MREE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.