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Hot Money and Business Cycle Volatility: Evidence from Selected ASEAN Countries

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  • Lu Yang
  • Shigeyuki Hamori

Abstract

This study investigates the linkage between speculative capital and business cycles in Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore from 1981:Q1 to 2012:Q4. We use the multivariate Markov-switching intercept autoregressive heteroskedasticity vector autoregressive (MSIAH-VAR) model and observe that while speculative shocks during the tranquil period temporarily promoted Malaysia’s economic growth, they temporarily damaged economic growth in Thailand and Singapore. Moreover, speculative capital flows from abroad exacerbated economic volatility and damaged economic growth prospects for all these countries during the crisis period. Thus, it may be important for policymakers to take appropriate actions against the potential risk of economic instability and market volatility from speculative capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu Yang & Shigeyuki Hamori, 2016. "Hot Money and Business Cycle Volatility: Evidence from Selected ASEAN Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 351-363, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:52:y:2016:i:2:p:351-363
    DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2015.1047302
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohamed Ibrahim Nor & Tajul Ariffin Masron & Tariq Tawfeeq Yousif Alabdullah, 2020. "Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Exchange Rate Volatility: Empirical Evidence From Somalia," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(1), pages 21582440198, January.
    2. Yıldırım-Karaman, Secil, 2017. "Uncertainty shocks, central bank characteristics and business cycles," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 379-388.
    3. Zhang, Yihao & Chen, Fang & Huang, Jian & Shenoy, Catherine, 2019. "Hot money flows and production uncertainty: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. Qureshi, Fiza & Kutan, Ali M. & Ismail, Izlin & Gee, Chan Sok, 2017. "Mutual funds and stock market volatility: An empirical analysis of Asian emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 176-192.

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