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Modeling Time-Varying Volatility and Expected Returns: Evidence from the GCC and MENA Regions

Author

Listed:
  • Mazin A. M. Al Janabi
  • Abdulnasser Hatemi-J
  • Manuchehr Irandoust

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate empirically the underlying nexus of stock market returns and volatility in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region by using the GARCH-M model. We find that volatility is time-varying in all countries, which indicates substantial variation in the degree of risk across time. However, we do not find empirical support that this time-varying volatility significantly explains expected returns, except in the case of Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, and the MENA region portfolio. Our findings show that stock return volatility is negatively correlated with stock returns in these three markets under the assumption of investor risk aversion. This lends some support to the hypothesis of a volatility-driven negative relationship in the literature. The policy implications of our results are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Mazin A. M. Al Janabi & Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2010. "Modeling Time-Varying Volatility and Expected Returns: Evidence from the GCC and MENA Regions," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(5), pages 39-47, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:46:y:2010:i:5:p:39-47
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Khaled GUESMI & Salma FATTOUM, 2014. "The Relationship between Oil Price and OECD Stock Markets: A Multivariate Approach," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 510-519.
    2. Anna Creti & Zied Ftiti & Khaled Guesmi, 2013. "Oil price impact on financial markets: co-spectral analysis for exporting versus importing countries," Post-Print hal-01410673, HAL.
    3. Alshammari, Ahmad Alrazni & Alhabshi, Syed Musa & Saiti, Buerhan, 2019. "The impact of oil prices and the financial market on cost efficiency in the insurance and Takaful sectors: Evidence from a stochastic frontier analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    4. Silvo Dajčman, 2013. "Interdependence Between Some Major European Stock Markets - A Wavelet Lead/Lag Analysis," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2013(1), pages 28-49.
    5. Khaled Guesmi & Salma Fattoum, 2014. "Measuring contagion effects between crude oil and OECD stock markets," Working Papers 2014-90, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    6. Creti, Anna & Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled, 2014. "Oil price and financial markets: Multivariate dynamic frequency analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 245-258.
    7. Anna Creti & Zied Ftiti & Khaled Guesmi, 2014. "Oil price impact on financial markets:," Working Papers 2014-435, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    8. Sercan Demiralay & Hatice Gaye Gencer, 2014. "Volatility Transmissions between Oil Prices and Emerging Market Sectors: Implications for Portfolio Management and Hedging Strategies," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(3), pages 442-447.
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-090 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Rui F. Teixeira & Mara Madaleno & Elisabete S. Vieira, 2017. "Oil price effects over individual Portuguese stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(3), pages 891-926, November.
    11. Kaabia, Olfa & Abid, Ilyes & Mkaouar, Farid, 2016. "The dark side of the black gold shock onto Europe: One stock's joy is another stock's sorrow," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 642-654.
    12. Ftiti, Zied & Guesmi, Khaled & Abid, Ilyes, 2016. "Oil price and stock market co-movement: What can we learn from time-scale approaches?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 266-280.

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