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Determinants of Currency Crises in Turkey

Author

Listed:
  • Gokhan Karabulut
  • Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin
  • Ayse Celikel Danisoglu

Abstract

Currency crises have become a serious threat for developing countries, especially since the financial deregulation process and the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. In the past two decades, Turkey has experienced two major currency crises. This study aims to predict the determinants of currency crises in Turkey by using an ordered probit model. According to the results, short-term debt/GDP, real exchange rate, deposit interest rates, foreign exchange reserves/imports, and credit/deposit variables are all significant in explaining currency crises in Turkey.

Suggested Citation

  • Gokhan Karabulut & Mehmet Huseyin Bilgin & Ayse Celikel Danisoglu, 2010. "Determinants of Currency Crises in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(0), pages 51-58, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:46:y:2010:i:0:p:51-58
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2023. "The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 625-642, April.
    2. Bakis, Ozan & Karanfil, Fatih & Polat, Sezgin, 2012. "Interactions between bank behavior and financial structure: evidence from a developing country," GIAM Working Papers 12-1, Galatasaray University Economic Research Center.
    3. Teuta Ismaili Muharremi, 2015. "Currency Crisis Revisited: A Literature Review," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 11(6), pages 117-124, December.
    4. Akinola Ezekiel Morakinyo & Mabutho Sibanda, 2016. "The Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in the MINT Economies," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 8(5), pages 39-55.
    5. Ari, Ali, 2012. "Early warning systems for currency crises: The Turkish case," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 391-410.
    6. Mustafa Kilinç & Zübeyir Kilinç & M. Ibrahim Turhan, 2012. "Resilience of the Turkish Economy During the Global Financial Crisis of 2008," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(S5), pages 19-34, November.

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