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Are There Benefits from Trading Strategy Based on the Returns Spillovers to the Emerging Stock Markets?: Evidence from Poland

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  • Janusz Brzeszczynski
  • Aleksander Welfe

Abstract

This study investigates benefits from a trading strategy based on the spillovers from international stock markets to the Polish emerging stock market. The analysis is conducted within the framework of factor and predictive generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models of the Warsaw Stock Exchange main index, WIG. We apply an approach in which the mean equation of the GARCH model includes a deterministic part incorporating cross-markets linkages. Both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts from the estimated models are calculated. The trading strategy is based on signals from the out-of-sample predictions. The models' performance and benefits from adopting such a strategy are evaluated using direction quality measures. Our results suggest that predictive models using cross-market linkages can produce superior out-of-sample forecasts compared to benchmarks.

Suggested Citation

  • Janusz Brzeszczynski & Aleksander Welfe, 2007. "Are There Benefits from Trading Strategy Based on the Returns Spillovers to the Emerging Stock Markets?: Evidence from Poland," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(4), pages 74-92, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:43:y:2007:i:4:p:74-92
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joanna Olbrys, 2013. "Price and Volatility Spillovers in the Case of Stock Markets Located in Different Time Zones," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(S2), pages 145-157, March.
    2. Yan-Ting Lin & Shang-Chi Gong & Sou-Shan Wu & Tsung-Pei Lee, 2012. "E/P Mean Reversion-Based Strategies for Investment Practice: Evidence from the Taiwan Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(1), pages 117-131, January.
    3. Grabowski, Wojciech & Janus, Jakub & Stawasz-Grabowska, Ewa, 2023. "The COVID-19 pandemic and financial markets in Central Europe: Macroeconomic measures and international policy spillovers," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Brzeszczyński, Janusz & Gajdka, Jerzy & Kutan, Ali M., 2015. "Investor response to public news, sentiment and institutional trading in emerging markets: A review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 338-352.
    5. Francisco Jareño & Ana Escribano & Monika W. Koczar, 2020. "Non-Linear Interdependencies between International Stock Markets: The Polish and Spanish Case," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(1), pages 1-21, December.
    6. Joanna Olbryś & Elżbieta Majewska, 2014. "Implications of market frictions: serial correlations in indexes on the emerging stock markets in Central and Eastern Europe," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 24(1), pages 51-70.
    7. Wojciech Grabowski, 2019. "Givers or Recipients? Co-Movements between Stock Markets of CEE-3 and Developed Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-24, November.

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