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Do Latin American Countries Have an Incentive to Default on Their External Debts?: A Perspective Based on Long-Run Current Account Behavior

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  • MARK J. HOLMES

Abstract

It is argued that the sustainability of external debts depends on the stationarity of the current account balance. This study tests for the stationarity of current account deficits for a sample of sixteen Latin American countries, employing a new test, advocated by Breuer et al. (2002), that allows one to test for unit roots in heterogeneous panel data sets. This version of the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test involves estimating ADF regressions within a seemingly unrelated regression (SURADF) framework. The benefits of creating a panel to overcome low test power are well known, but this particular test also offers key advantages over existing alternative panel data unit root tests. Unlike previous tests, this one identifies which members from within the panel are responsible for rejecting the null hypothesis of joint nonstationarity. In addition, the SURADF test does not presume disturbances that are independently and identically distributed. Using annual data covering the period 1979-2001, this study finds strong evidence in favor of current account mean-reversion for at least twelve Latin American countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark J. Holmes, 2006. "Do Latin American Countries Have an Incentive to Default on Their External Debts?: A Perspective Based on Long-Run Current Account Behavior," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(1), pages 33-49, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:42:y:2006:i:1:p:33-49
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Santosh Kumar Dash, 2017. "Analyzing Current Account Sustainability through the Saving-Investment Correlation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2860-2870.
    2. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Xie, Zixiong, 2015. "Testing for current account sustainability under assumptions of smooth break and nonlinearity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 142-156.
    3. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Smooth transition, non-linearity and current account sustainability: Evidence from the European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 541-554.
    4. Yersh, Valeryia, 2020. "Current account sustainability and capital mobility in Latin American and Caribbean countries," MPRA Paper 105440, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Garg, Bhavesh & Prabheesh, K.P., 2021. "Testing the intertemporal sustainability of current account in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the top deficit countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 365-379.
    6. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2012. "A Note on the Current Account Sustainability of European Transition Economies," Working Papers 2012011, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
    7. Barbara Pistoresi, 2013. "Italy's current account sustainability:a long run perspective, 1861-2000," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 092, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".

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