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Did World War II Deaths Help Prevent Deaths from COVID-19?

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  • Michael Lokshin
  • Martin Ravallion
  • Vladimir Kolchin

Abstract

The paper documents and tries to explain a striking negative correlation between COVID-19 mortality across countries and deaths during World War II. The correlation persists with various controls for observables and allowing for latent omitted variables, using the pre-war distribution of the Jewish population for identification. The correlation also survives influence and falsification tests, measurement-error adjustments, and tests for spatial autocorrelation, which can generate spurious historical dependence. We suggest a theoretical explanation whereby large shocks promote institutions and cooperative behavioral norms – interpretable as civic capital – that initially help attenuate losses from future large shocks, though with fading impact over time.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Lokshin & Martin Ravallion & Vladimir Kolchin, 2024. "Did World War II Deaths Help Prevent Deaths from COVID-19?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 62(2), pages 109-135, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:62:y:2024:i:2:p:109-135
    DOI: 10.1080/00128775.2023.2278806
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