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Uncovered Interest-rate Parity and Risk Premium: Evidence from EUR/RSD Exchange Rate

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  • Miloš Božović

Abstract

This paper examines the uncovered interest-rate parity in a developing economy that implements inflation targeting. We study the exchange rate between the Euro and Serbian Dinar over different time horizons. We apply APARCH-in-mean to measure the impact and nature of a time-varying risk premium and capture the influence of higher-order moments on expected currency returns. We find a significant positive association between the returns and the interest-rate differential over shorter horizons when the risk premium is included. Asymmetries and fat tails are essential in explaining average returns over time horizons of up to one month.

Suggested Citation

  • Miloš Božović, 2021. "Uncovered Interest-rate Parity and Risk Premium: Evidence from EUR/RSD Exchange Rate," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 59(3), pages 271-294, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:59:y:2021:i:3:p:271-294
    DOI: 10.1080/00128775.2020.1840275
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