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Inflation Expectations of European Consumers after the Crisis. Do Macro Variables Drive Expectations?

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  • Magdalena Szyszko
  • Aleksandra Rutkowska

Abstract

This article examines the relationship between consumer expectations and macro variables. The research covers five EU member states: Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Romania in the period from 2011 to 2015. Its aim is to find long-run dependence of expectations and financial and real sphere variables in the post-crisis era. No previous studies for this sample and time span exist: this paper contributes to the strand of the literature detecting formation patterns of expectations. VAR/VEC models are estimated in order to trace impulse response to expectations. Five different stories have been found about expectation formation for each economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Magdalena Szyszko & Aleksandra Rutkowska, 2019. "Inflation Expectations of European Consumers after the Crisis. Do Macro Variables Drive Expectations?," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(4), pages 271-294, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:57:y:2019:i:4:p:271-294
    DOI: 10.1080/00128775.2019.1610896
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    Cited by:

    1. Szyszko, Magdalena & Rutkowska, Aleksandra & Kliber, Agata, 2022. "Do words affect expectations? The effect of central banks communication on consumer inflation expectations," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 221-229.
    2. Katharina Allinger & Fabio Rumler, 2023. "Inflation Expectations in CESEE: The Role of Sentiment and Experiences (Katharina Allinger, Fabio Rumler)," Working Papers 247, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).

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