IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/mes/eaeuec/v56y2018i5p382-421.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Systemic Risk and Foreign Currency Positions of Banks: Evidence from Emerging Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Alin Marius Andrieş
  • Simona Nistor

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of foreign currency (FX) denominated assets and liabilities on systemic risk by using a unique hand-collected dataset of bank-level FX positions for the period 2005–2012. The sample consists of banks from Central and Eastern Europe with large share of FX exposures on the balance sheet. Empirical findings indicate that systemic risk is dependent on the currency choice of financial institutions. While FX positions denominating in EUR and USD do not pose systemic risk concerns, FX positions denominating in exotic currencies like CHF significantly enhance the banks’ systemic importance. The negative influence of CHF positions might be reduced through prudent corporate governance mechanisms, tight restrictions on banking activity, and more restrictive limits on foreign currency lending in the home countries of the bank holding companies.

Suggested Citation

  • Alin Marius Andrieş & Simona Nistor, 2018. "Systemic Risk and Foreign Currency Positions of Banks: Evidence from Emerging Europe," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(5), pages 382-421, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:56:y:2018:i:5:p:382-421
    DOI: 10.1080/00128775.2018.1440179
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00128775.2018.1440179
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00128775.2018.1440179?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Akinci, Ozge & Olmstead-Rumsey, Jane, 2018. "How effective are macroprudential policies? An empirical investigation," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 33-57.
    2. Kuttner, Kenneth N. & Shim, Ilhyock, 2016. "Can non-interest rate policies stabilize housing markets? Evidence from a panel of 57 economies," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 31-44.
    3. Allen, Franklin & Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kowalewski, Oskar & Kozłowski, Łukasz, 2017. "Bank lending, crises, and changing ownership structure in Central and Eastern European countries," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 494-515.
    4. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    5. Paul H. Kupiec, 1995. "Techniques for verifying the accuracy of risk measurement models," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 95-24, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Stix, Helmut, 2015. "Foreign currency borrowing and knowledge about exchange rate risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-16.
    7. Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Athanasio Vamvakidis, 2010. "Currency Mismatch and Systemic Risk in Emerging Europe," PSE - G-MOND WORKING PAPERS halshs-00967419, HAL.
    8. Cull, Robert & Martínez Pería, María Soledad, 2013. "Bank ownership and lending patterns during the 2008–2009 financial crisis: Evidence from Latin America and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 4861-4878.
    9. Hasan, Iftekhar & Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kowalewski, Oskar & Kozłowski, Łukasz, 2013. "Market discipline during crisis: Evidence from bank depositors in transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5436-5451.
    10. Black, Lamont & Correa, Ricardo & Huang, Xin & Zhou, Hao, 2016. "The systemic risk of European banks during the financial and sovereign debt crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 107-125.
    11. De Jonghe, Olivier & Diepstraten, Maaike & Schepens, Glenn, 2015. "Banks’ size, scope and systemic risk: What role for conflicts of interest?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S1), pages 3-13.
    12. Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2016. "CoVaR," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(7), pages 1705-1741, July.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2008. "CoVaR," Staff Reports 348, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
      • Tobias Adrian & Markus K. Brunnermeier, 2011. "CoVaR," NBER Working Papers 17454, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Augustin, Patrick & Tédongap, Roméo, 2016. "Real Economic Shocks and Sovereign Credit Risk," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 541-587, April.
    14. Judit Temesvary, 2016. "The drivers of foreign currency-based banking in Central and Eastern Europe," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 24(2), pages 233-257, April.
    15. Laeven, Luc & Ratnovski, Lev & Tong, Hui, 2016. "Bank size, capital, and systemic risk: Some international evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(S1), pages 25-34.
    16. Martin Brown & Steven Ongena & Pinar Yeşin, 2014. "Information Asymmetry and Foreign Currency Borrowing by Small Firms," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 56(1), pages 110-131, March.
    17. Stulz, Rene, 2010. "Credit default Swaps and the Credit Crisis," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 157-175.
    18. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
    19. Andrieş, Alin Marius & Nistor, Simona, 2016. "Systemic risk, corporate governance and regulation of banks across emerging countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 59-63.
    20. Cerutti, Eugenio & Claessens, Stijn & Laeven, Luc, 2017. "The use and effectiveness of macroprudential policies: New evidence," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 203-224.
    21. Dirk Schoenmaker & Wolf Wagner, 2013. "Cross-Border Banking in Europe and Financial Stability," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, February.
    22. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Stuckler, David, 2010. "Foreign currency debt, financial crises and economic growth: A long-run view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 642-665, June.
    23. Raffestin, Louis, 2014. "Diversification and systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 85-106.
    24. A. Bethlendi, 2011. "Policy measures and failures on foreign currency household lending in central and eastern Europe," Acta Oeconomica, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 61(2), pages 193-223, June.
    25. Martin Brown & Ralph De Haas, 2012. "Foreign banks and foreign currency lending in emerging Europe [Capital structure and financial risk: evidence from foreign debt use in East Asia]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(69), pages 57-98.
    26. Brown, Martin & Ongena, Steven & Yesin, Pinar, 2011. "Foreign currency borrowing by small firms in the transition economies," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 285-302, July.
    27. Romain Ranciere & Aaron Tornell & Athanasios Vamvakidis, 2010. "Currency mismatch, systemic risk and growth in emerging Europe [Capital structure and financial risk: evidence from foreign debt use in East Asia]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 25(64), pages 597-658.
    28. Jérôme Vandenbussche & Ursula Vogel & Enrica Detragiache, 2015. "Macroprudential Policies and Housing Prices: A New Database and Empirical Evidence for Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 343-377, March.
    29. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    30. James R. Barth & Gerard Caprio & Ross Levine, 2013. "Bank regulation and supervision in 180 countries from 1999 to 2011," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(2), pages 111-219, May.
    31. Bonin, John P. & Louie, Dana, 2017. "Did foreign banks stay committed to emerging Europe during recent financial crises?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(4), pages 793-808.
    32. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
    33. Christian Brownlees & Robert F. Engle, 2017. "SRISK: A Conditional Capital Shortfall Measure of Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 48-79.
    34. Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornall & Athanasio Vamvakidis, 2010. "Currency mismatch, systemic risk and growth in emerging Europe," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) halshs-00754418, HAL.
    35. López-Espinosa, Germán & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura & Antón, Miguel, 2013. "Good for one, bad for all: Determinants of individual versus systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 287-299.
    36. Iqbal, Jamshed & Strobl, Sascha & Vähämaa, Sami, 2015. "Corporate governance and the systemic risk of financial institutions," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 42-61.
    37. Ellis, Luci & Haldane, Andy & Moshirian, Fariborz, 2014. "Systemic risk, governance and global financial stability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 175-181.
    38. Martin Brown & Marcel Peter & Simon Wehrmüller, 2009. "Swiss Franc Lending in Europe," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 64(02), pages 167-181, June.
    39. repec:zbw:bofitp:2013_021 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya, 2014. "Demand and supply drivers of foreign currency loans in CEECs: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 26-42.
    41. Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Bostandzic, Denefa & Neumann, Sascha, 2014. "What factors drive systemic risk during international financial crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 78-96.
    42. Fiala, Tomas & Havranek, Tomas, 2017. "The sources of contagion risk in a banking sector with foreign ownership," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 108-121.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Fischer, Andreas M. & Yeşin, Pınar, 2022. "Foreign currency loan conversions and currency mismatches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Hikmet Akyol & Selim Basar, 2024. "Empirical Analysis of Turkish Banking Sector Institutional and Macroeconomic Determinants of Risks," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 73(74-1), pages 59-98, June.
    3. Ana Kundid Novokmet, 2021. "Troubles with the Chf Loans in Croatia: The Story of a Case Still Waiting to Be Closed," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-21, February.
    4. Piotr Krajewski & Agata Szymanska, 2019. "The effectiveness of fiscal policy within business cycle-Ricardians vs. non-Ricardians approach," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 195-215.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fischer, Andreas M. & Yeşin, Pınar, 2022. "Foreign currency loan conversions and currency mismatches," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    2. Andrieş, Alin Marius & Nistor, Simona & Sprincean, Nicu, 2020. "The impact of central bank transparency on systemic risk—Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    3. Viktória Vidaházy & Pınar Yeşin, 2020. "Deleveraging and Foreign Currency Loan Conversion Programs in Europe," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 62(2), pages 215-241, June.
    4. Meuleman, Elien & Vander Vennet, Rudi, 2020. "Macroprudential policy and bank systemic risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    5. Qin, Xiao & Zhou, Chunyang, 2019. "Financial structure and determinants of systemic risk contribution," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    6. Beckmann, Elisabeth & Stix, Helmut, 2015. "Foreign currency borrowing and knowledge about exchange rate risk," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1-16.
    7. Bakkar, Yassine & Nyola, Annick Pamen, 2021. "Internationalization, foreign complexity and systemic risk: Evidence from European banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    8. Rahman, Md Lutfur & Troster, Victor & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Yahya, Muhammad, 2022. "Systemic risk contribution of banks and non-bank financial institutions across frequencies: The Australian experience," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    9. Alin-Marius Andries & Florentina Melnic & Simona Nistor, 2018. "Effects of Macroprudential Policy on Systemic Risk and Bank Risk Taking," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(3), pages 202-244, July.
    10. Aiba, Daiju & Odajima, Ken & Khou, Vouthy, 2018. "Foreign currency borrowing and risk-hedging behavior: Evidence from Cambodian households," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-35.
    11. Emil Verner & Győző Gyöngyösi, 2020. "Household Debt Revaluation and the Real Economy: Evidence from a Foreign Currency Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2667-2702, September.
    12. Varotto, Simone & Zhao, Lei, 2018. "Systemic risk and bank size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 45-70.
    13. Claudia M Buch & Linda S Goldberg, 2017. "Cross-Border Prudential Policy Spillovers: How Much? How Important? Evidence from the International Banking Research Network," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 505-558, March.
    14. Bitar, Joseph, 2021. "Foreign Currency Intermediation: Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Regulation," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(2).
    15. Elisabeth Beckmann, 2017. "How does foreign currency debt relief affect households’ loan demand? Evidence from the OeNB Euro Survey in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 8-32.
    16. Atasoy, Burak Sencer & Özkan, İbrahim & Erden, Lütfi, 2024. "The determinants of systemic risk contagion," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    17. Apergis, Nicholas & Aysan, Ahmet F. & Bakkar, Yassine, 2022. "Borrower- and lender-based macroprudential policies: What works best against bank systemic risk?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    18. Badarau, Cristina & Lapteacru, Ion, 2020. "Bank risk, competition and bank connectedness with firms: A literature review," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    19. Martin Brown & Karolin Kirschenmann & Steven Ongena, 2014. "Bank Funding, Securitization, and Loan Terms: Evidence from Foreign Currency Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(7), pages 1501-1534, October.
    20. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2020. "Can systemic risk measures predict economic shocks? Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:56:y:2018:i:5:p:382-421. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/MEEE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.