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Countercyclical Capital Buffers and Credit-to-GDP Gaps: Simulation for Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

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  • Adam Geršl
  • Jakub Seidler

Abstract

Under Basel III, banks are required to build up countercyclical capital buffers during periods of excessive credit growth to cover future credit losses. Based on a review of the credit boom episodes in sixteen Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European countries during 2000s, two measures of excessive credit are calculated: one based on the Hodrick-Prescott filter, as suggested by the Basel Committee for the activation of the countercyclical buffer, and the other based on an estimate of equilibrium credit. While the filtering-based measure signals future credit losses quite well, using the measure based on equilibrium credit improves the forecast of future deleveraging and its impact on GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Geršl & Jakub Seidler, 2015. "Countercyclical Capital Buffers and Credit-to-GDP Gaps: Simulation for Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(6), pages 439-465, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:53:y:2015:i:6:p:439-465
    DOI: 10.1080/00128775.2015.1102602
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    Cited by:

    1. Piergiorgio Alessandri & Pierluigi Bologna & Maddalena Galardo, 2022. "Financial Crises, Macroprudential Policy and the Reliability of Credit-to-GDP Gaps," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(4), pages 625-667, December.
    2. Adam Geršl & Thomas Mitterling, 2021. "Forecast-Augmented Credit-to-GDP Gap as an Early Warning Indicator of Banking Crises," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 71(4), pages 323-351, December.
    3. Mirgul Nizaeva & Ali Coskun, 2019. "Investigating the Relationship Between Financial Constraint and Growth of SMEs in South Eastern Europe," SAGE Open, , vol. 9(3), pages 21582440198, September.
    4. Hodula Martin & Pfeifer Lukáš, 2018. "Fiscal-Monetary-Financial Stability Interactions in a Data-Rich Environment," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 18(3), pages 195-224, September.
    5. Deryugina, Elena & Ponomarenko, Alexey & Rozhkova, Anna, 2020. "When are credit gap estimates reliable?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 221-238.
    6. Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2021. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).

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