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Modeling Inflation in Poland: A Structural Cointegration Approach

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  • Byung-Yeon Kim

Abstract

This paper uses cointegration and error-correction models to analyze the relative effects of the monetary, labor, and external sectors on Polish inflation from 1990 to 1999. We use a structural system approach in which cointegration relations are used to derive deviations from steady-state levels. The results suggest that the labor and external sectors dominated the determination of Polish inflation during the above period, but their effects on inflation changed in the mid-1990s. During the period 1995-99, the appreciation of the domestic currency contributed to reducing inflation, whereas excessive wage increases prevented inflation from decreasing to a lower level.

Suggested Citation

  • Byung-Yeon Kim, 2008. "Modeling Inflation in Poland: A Structural Cointegration Approach," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(6), pages 60-69, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:eaeuec:v:46:y:2008:i:6:p:60-69
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    Cited by:

    1. Josef C. Brada & Jan KubÃ­Ä ek & Ali M. Kutan & Vladimír Tomšík, 2015. "Inflation Targeting: Insights from Behavioral Economics," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(5), pages 357-376, September.
    2. Bruno Ferreira Frascaroli & Jailson da Conceição Teixeira de Oliveira, 2017. "Sub-Saharan African Countries’ Dependence on the External Inflation: Empirical Evidence Using Copulas," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(12), pages 1-21, December.
    3. Bruno Ferreira Frascaroli & Wellington Charles Lacerda Nobrega, 2019. "Inflation Targeting and Inflation Risk in Latin America," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(11), pages 2389-2408, September.
    4. Krzysztof DRACHAL, 2020. "Forecasting the Inflation Rate in Poland and U.S. Using Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) and Google Queries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 18-34, July.

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