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An Empirical Study of International Linkages of the Shanghai Copper Futures Market

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  • Zehai Li
  • Lawrence Huiyan Zhang

Abstract

This article analyzes the causal relationships of copper futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the London Metal Exchange, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Multi Commodity Exchange of India. The structural vector autoregression model is used to reflect on both short-run and long-run impacts on these four futures markets. There are two main conclusions. First, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Multi Commodity Exchange of India have a relatively weaker influence on the international copper markets, more like the shadow markets of the London Metal Exchage. Second, the price impact of Shanghai Futures Exchange copper on London Metal Exchange copper has been increasing since 2007, while the impact of London Metal Exchange copper on Shanghai Futures Exchange copper has been decreasing.

Suggested Citation

  • Zehai Li & Lawrence Huiyan Zhang, 2013. "An Empirical Study of International Linkages of the Shanghai Copper Futures Market," Chinese Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 61-74, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mes:chinec:v:46:y:2013:i:3:p:61-74
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    Cited by:

    1. Ding, Yinghui & Chen, Shan & Li, Haoran & Sun, Qingru & Chen, Hanyu & Yu, Hui, 2023. "Causality inference among base metal, rare metal and precious metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    2. Kumar Ravi & Dhiman Babli, 2022. "Indian and Chinese Metal Futures Markets: A Linkage Analysis," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, September.
    3. Claudia Wellenreuther & Jan Voelzke, 2019. "Speculation and volatility—A time‐varying approach applied on Chinese commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 405-417, April.
    4. Zhang, Huiming & Qian, Siji & Ma, Zhen, 2024. "An analysis of the market efficiency of the Chinese copper futures based on intertemporal and intermarket arbitrages," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    5. Pierre L. Siklos & Martin Stefan & Claudia Wellenreuther, 2020. "Metal prices made in China? A network analysis of industrial metal futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(9), pages 1354-1374, September.
    6. Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda, 2019. "Night Trading with Futures in China: The Case of Aluminum and Copper," QBS Working Paper Series 2019/06, Queen's University Belfast, Queen's Business School.
    7. Mensi, Walid & Nekhili, Ramzi & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Quantile dependencies between precious and industrial metals futures and portfolio management," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Kang, Sang Hoon & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2019. "Time-frequency co-movements between the largest nonferrous metal futures markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 393-398.
    9. Zesheng Sun & Bianxia Sun, 2017. "Impact of Monetary Supply on Chinese Nonferrous Metal Price Movement-super-," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 17-37, March.
    10. Kang, Sang Hoon & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2016. "Dynamic spillovers between Shanghai and London nonferrous metal futures markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 181-188.
    11. Claudio-Quiroga, Gloria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Maiza-Larrarte, Andoni, 2023. "Mineral prices persistence and the development of a new energy vehicle industry in China: A fractional integration approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    12. Klein, Tony & Todorova, Neda, 2021. "Night trading with futures in China: The case of Aluminum and Copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    13. Sun, Zesheng & Wang, Yaoqing & Zhou, Xu & Yang, Lunan, 2019. "The roundabout from interest rates to commodity prices in China: The role of money flow," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 627-642.
    14. Brian M. Lucey, 2014. "Return and Volatility Spillovers in Industrial Metals," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp463, IIIS.
    15. Ciner, Cetin & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2020. "Spillovers, integration and causality in LME non-ferrous metal markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    16. Chen, Xiangyu & Tongurai, Jittima, 2022. "Spillovers and interdependency across base metals: Evidence from China's futures and spot markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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