IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/men/journl/v2y2016i2p91-106.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Housing Price Fundamentals through the Business Cycle

Author

Listed:
  • Michael G. Wenz

    (Politechnika Częstochowska, Poland
    Northeastern Illinois University, Chicago, USA)

  • William Wei-Choun Yu

    (University of California, Los Angeles, USA)

Abstract

We examine the fundamental determinants of nominal home price growth from 1995 to 2012 across 300 metropolitan areas in the U.S. This sample period provides a trough-to-trough time period that allows for analysis through a complete business cycle. By using a supply-to-demand ratio for home price appreciation, we identify a straightforward and powerful method for predicting home price appreciation across markets. We suggest an alternative and simple method for addressing endogeneity in house prices and include a comprehensive measure of human capital. We find five significant factors: home supply growth, personal income growth, human capital, an ocean dummy, and geographic constraint.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael G. Wenz & William Wei-Choun Yu, 2016. "Housing Price Fundamentals through the Business Cycle," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 2(2), pages 91-106.
    • Handle: RePEc:men:journl:v:2:y:2016:i:2:p:91-106
    DOI: 10.11118/ejobsat.v2i2.55
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ejobsat.cz/doi/10.11118/ejobsat.v2i2.55.html
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: http://ejobsat.cz/doi/10.11118/ejobsat.v2i2.55.pdf
    Download Restriction: free of charge
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.11118/ejobsat.v2i2.55?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rappaport, Jordan & Sachs, Jeffrey D, 2003. "The United States as a Coastal Nation," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(1), pages 5-46, March.
    2. Albert Saiz, 2010. "The Geographic Determinants of Housing Supply," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(3), pages 1253-1296.
    3. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    4. Huang, Haifang & Tang, Yao, 2012. "Residential land use regulation and the US housing price cycle between 2000 and 2009," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 93-99.
    5. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    6. John M. Quigley & Steven Raphael, 2005. "Regulation and the High Cost of Housing in California," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 323-328, May.
    7. Richard K. Green & Stephen Malpezzi & Stephen K. Mayo, 2005. "Metropolitan-Specific Estimates of the Price Elasticity of Supply of Housing, and Their Sources," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 334-339, May.
    8. Edward L. Glaeser & Joseph Gyourko & Raven E. Saks, 2005. "Why Have Housing Prices Gone Up?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 329-333, May.
    9. Joseph Gyourko & Albert Saiz & Anita Summers, 2008. "A New Measure of the Local Regulatory Environment for Housing Markets: The Wharton Residential Land Use Regulatory Index," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(3), pages 693-729, March.
    10. Joshua Gallin, 2006. "The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Income: Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 34(3), pages 417-438, September.
    11. Moretti, Enrico, 2004. "Human capital externalities in cities," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 51, pages 2243-2291, Elsevier.
    12. Stephen Malpezzi & Gregory H. Chun & Richard K. Green, 1998. "New Place‐to‐Place Housing Price Indexes for U.S. Metropolitan Areas, and Their Determinants," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 235-274, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Paciorek, Andrew, 2013. "Supply constraints and housing market dynamics," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 11-26.
    2. Huang, Haifang & Tang, Yao, 2012. "Residential land use regulation and the US housing price cycle between 2000 and 2009," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 93-99.
    3. Jackson, Kristoffer (Kip), 2018. "Regulation, land constraints, and California’s boom and bust," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 130-147.
    4. Oikarinen, Elias & Peltola, Risto & Valtonen, Eero, 2015. "Regional variation in the elasticity of supply of housing, and its determinants: The case of a small sparsely populated country," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 18-30.
    5. Tammy Leonard & Xi Yang & Lei Zhang, 2021. "The impact of land use regulation across the conditional distribution of home prices: an application of quantile regression for group-level treatments," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 66(3), pages 655-676, June.
    6. Bahadir, Berrak & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2014. "Housing market dynamics with delays in the construction sector," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 94-108.
    7. Christian A. L. Hilber & Wouter Vermeulen, 2016. "The Impact of Supply Constraints on House Prices in England," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 126(591), pages 358-405, March.
    8. David Albouy, 2009. "The Unequal Geographic Burden of Federal Taxation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 117(4), pages 635-667, August.
    9. Knut Are Aastveit & Bruno Albuquerque & André K. Anundsen, 2023. "Changing Supply Elasticities and Regional Housing Booms," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(7), pages 1749-1783, October.
    10. Xi Yang, 2021. "Land-Use Regulations and Urban Growth of African Americans," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 35(4), pages 338-350, November.
    11. Andrew D. Paciorek, 2012. "Supply constraints and housing market dynamics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-01, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Divya Singh, 2020. "Do Property Tax Incentives for New Construction Spur Gentrification? Evidence from New York City," 2020 Papers psi856, Job Market Papers.
    13. Gyourko, Joseph & Molloy, Raven, 2015. "Regulation and Housing Supply," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 1289-1337, Elsevier.
    14. Dong, Yilin, 2016. "A note on geographical constraints and housing markets in China," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 15-21.
    15. Bimonte, Salvatore & Stabile, Arsenio, 2015. "Local taxation and urban development. Testing for the side-effects of the Italian property tax," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 100-107.
    16. Sharpe, Jamie, 2019. "Re-evaluating the impact of immigration on the U.S. rental housing market," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 14-34.
    17. Liu, Shimeng & Yang, Xi, 2021. "Human capital externalities or consumption spillovers? The effect of high-skill human capital across low-skill labor markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    18. Lozano Navarro, Francisco-Javier, 2015. "Elasticidad precio de la oferta inmobiliaria en el Gran Santiago [Housing supply elasticity in Greater Santiago]," MPRA Paper 65012, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Kok, Nils & Monkkonen, Paavo & Quigley, John M., 2014. "Land use regulations and the value of land and housing: An intra-metropolitan analysis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 136-148.
    20. Keith Ihlanfeldt & Tom Mayock, 2014. "Housing Bubbles and Busts: The Role of Supply Elasticity," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(1), pages 79-99.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing; real estate; house price forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R2 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:men:journl:v:2:y:2016:i:2:p:91-106. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Ivo Andrle (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/femencz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.