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Economic Adjustment of Default Probabilities

Author

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  • Tomáš Vaněk

    (Mendel University in Brno, Czech Republic)

Abstract

This paper proposes a straightforward and intuitive computational mechanism for the economic adjustment of default probabilities, allowing the extension of the original (usually one-year) probability of default estimates for more than one period ahead. The intensity of economic adjustment can be flexibly modified by setting the appropriate weighting parameter. The proposed mechanism is designed to be useful especially in the context of lifetime expected credit losses calculation within the IFRS 9 requirements.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomáš Vaněk, 2016. "Economic Adjustment of Default Probabilities," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 2(2), pages 122-130.
    • Handle: RePEc:men:journl:v:2:y:2016:i:2:p:122-130
    DOI: 10.11118/ejobsat.v2i2.64
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    2. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
    3. T Bellotti & J Crook, 2009. "Credit scoring with macroeconomic variables using survival analysis," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 60(12), pages 1699-1707, December.
    4. Crook, Jonathan N. & Edelman, David B. & Thomas, Lyn C., 2007. "Recent developments in consumer credit risk assessment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 183(3), pages 1447-1465, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit risk; probability of default; economic adjustment; economic forecast; IFRS 9;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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