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Real and Monetary Shocks and Risk Premia in Forward Markets for Foreign Exchange

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  • Dutton, John

Abstract

A version of the model of Lucas (1982) and Domowitz and Hakkio (1985) is used to compute risk premia on forward foreign exchange from stochastic shocks to goods and money. Risk premium signs and magnitudes vary with shocks and with the intratemporal substitutability of goods in consumption. When the elasticity of substitution is less than (greater than) one, an increase in home good variance induces a decrease (increase) in the risk premium on forward foreign currency. When money is the source of shock, no risk premia appear. A premium can appear unrelated to risk but caused by a 'Jensen's inequality effect.' Copyright 1993 by Ohio State University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Dutton, John, 1993. "Real and Monetary Shocks and Risk Premia in Forward Markets for Foreign Exchange," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 731-754, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:25:y:1993:i:4:p:731-54
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    1. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:2:p:169-180 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Heeho Kim, 2013. "Uncertainty and risk premium puzzle," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(1), pages 62-79, January.
    3. David K. Backus & Federico Gavazzoni & Christopher Telmer & Stanley E. Zin, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Uncovered Interest Parity Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 16218, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Juan Ángel Lafuente & Jesús Ruiz, 2002. "Time-Varying forward Bias and the Volatility of Risk Premium: a Monetary Explanation," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0214, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    5. Engel, Charles, 1996. "The forward discount anomaly and the risk premium: A survey of recent evidence," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 123-192, June.
    6. Sibert, Anne, 1996. "Unconventional preferences: do they explain foreign exchange risk premia?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 149-165, February.
    7. Lafuente, Juan A. & Pérez, Rafaela & Ruiz, Jesús, 2016. "Monetary policy regimes and the forward bias for foreign exchange," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 13-28.
    8. Juan A. Lafuente & Jesús Ruiz, 2002. "The Bias For Forward Exchange Rate And The Risk Premium: An Explanation With A Stochastic And Dynamic General Equilibrium Model," Working Papers. Serie EC 2002-20, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    9. Lafuente, Juan Angel & Ruiz, Jesus, 2006. "Monetary policy and forward bias for foreign exchange revisited: Empirical evidence from the US-UK exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 238-264, March.
    10. Juan-Ángel Jiménez-Martín & Rafael Flores de Frutos, 2004. "The Fit of Dynamic Equilibrium Models of Exchange Rate," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0411, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    11. Heeho Kim, 2011. "Market Instability and Revision Error in Risk Premium," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(2), pages 169-180, May.

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