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The International Debt Crisis, Investor Contagion, and Bank Security Returns in 1987: The Brazilian Experience

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  • Musumeci, James J
  • Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr

Abstract

The authors use event-study methods to examine security returns for the twenty-five largest U.S. bank holding companies surrounding two events: (1) Citicorp's $3 billion loan-loss-reserve decision of May 19, 1987 and (2) subsequent follow-the-leader behavior by other major banking companies. Although the market anticipated rational follow-the-leader behavior and rewarded it, the events were only partially anticipated. The authors interpret the loan-loss-reserve decisions as foreshadowing the write-down of LDC loans. Such bookkeeping entries affect market prices because they signal economic value-enhancing corporate and strategic restructurings. Copyright 1990 by Ohio State University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Musumeci, James J & Sinkey, Joseph F, Jr, 1990. "The International Debt Crisis, Investor Contagion, and Bank Security Returns in 1987: The Brazilian Experience," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(2), pages 209-220, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:22:y:1990:i:2:p:209-20
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    Cited by:

    1. De Bandt, Olivier & Hartmann, Philipp, 2000. "Systemic risk: A survey," Working Paper Series 35, European Central Bank.
    2. Sabyasachi Mohapatra & Arun Kumar Misra & Marimuthu Murali Kannan, 2020. "Risk factors explaining returns anomaly in emerging market banks – study on Indian banking system," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 44(3), pages 417-433, July.
    3. Henry, Jérôme & Zimmermann, Maik & Leber, Miha & Kolb, Markus & Grodzicki, Maciej & Amzallag, Adrien & Vouldis, Angelos & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Pancaro, Cosimo & Gross, Marco & Baudino, Patrizia & Sydow, , 2013. "A macro stress testing framework for assessing systemic risks in the banking sector," Occasional Paper Series 152, European Central Bank.
    4. Eduardo Levy-Yeyati & Marõa Soledad Martõnez Perõa & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2010. "Depositor Behavior under Macroeconomic Risk: Evidence from Bank Runs in Emerging Economies," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(4), pages 585-614, June.
    5. Gunther, Jeffery W. & Moore, Robert R., 2003. "Loss underreporting and the auditing role of bank exams," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 153-177, April.
    6. Lau, Sie Ting & McInish, Thomas H., 2003. "IMF bailouts, contagion effects, and bank security returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 3-23.
    7. Gunther, Jeffery W. & Moore, Robert R., 2003. "Early warning models in real time," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1979-2001, October.
    8. Bessler, Wolfgang & Nohel, Tom, 1996. "The stock-market reaction to dividend cuts and omissions by commercial banks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(9), pages 1485-1508, November.
    9. Fissel, Gary S. & Goldberg, Lawrence & Hanweck, Gerald A., 2006. "Bank portfolio exposure to emerging markets and its effects on bank market value," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1103-1126, April.
    10. Pamela P. Peterson & Larry D. Wall, 1996. "Banks' responses to binding regulatory capital requirements," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 80(Mar), pages 1-17.
    11. Kaen, Fred R. & Michalsen, Dag, 1997. "The effects of the Norwegian banking crisis on Norwegian equities," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 83-111, June.
    12. Bessler, Wolfgang & Kurmann, Philipp & Nohel, Tom, 2015. "Time-varying systematic and idiosyncratic risk exposures of US bank holding companies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 45-68.
    13. Christoph Trebesch & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Mr. Udaibir S Das, 2012. "Sovereign Debt Restructurings 1950-2010: Literature Survey, Data, and Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/203, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Furfine, Craig H, 2001. "Banks as Monitors of Other Banks: Evidence from the Overnight Federal Funds Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(1), pages 33-57, January.
    15. Bertrand Rime, 2003. "The Reaction of Swiss Banks' Stock Prices to the Russian Crisis," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 139(I), pages 101-124, March.
    16. Philipp Hartmann & Stefan Straetmans & Casper de Vries, 2007. "Banking System Stability. A Cross-Atlantic Perspective," NBER Chapters, in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 133-188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Kilic, Osman & Hassan, M. Kabir & Tufte, David, 2000. "Market efficiency, the Mexican peso crisis, and the US bank stock returns: An application of the event parameter method," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-2), pages 73-86.
    18. C. H. Furfine, 1999. "Interbank exposures: quantifying the risk of contagion," BIS Working Papers 70, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Schinski, Michael & Mullineaux, Donald, 1995. "The impact of the Federal Reserve's source of strength policy on bank holding companies," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(35), pages 483-496.
    20. Fricke, Daniel, 2010. "Contagion between European and US banks: Evidence from equity prices," Kiel Working Papers 1667, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    21. M. Kabir Hassan & Abdullah Mamun, 2009. "Global Impact of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act: Evidence from Insurance Industries of Developed Countries," NFI Working Papers 2009-WP-13, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    22. Nobuyuki Isagawa & Satoru Yamaguchi & Tadayasu Yamashita, 2010. "Debt Forgiveness And Stock Price Reaction Of Lending Banks: Theory And Evidence From Japan," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 33(3), pages 267-287, September.
    23. Bessler, Wolfgang & Kurmann, Philipp, 2014. "Bank risk factors and changing risk exposures: Capital market evidence before and during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 151-166.
    24. Aigbe Akhigbe & Melissa B. Frye & Ann Marie Whyte, 2005. "Financial Modernization in US Banking Markets: A Local or Global Event?," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7‐8), pages 1561-1585, September.
    25. Bailey, Warren & Peter Chung, Y., 1996. "Risk and return in the Philippine equity market: A multifactor exploration," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 197-218, July.

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