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Budget Deficits, Stability, and the Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation

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  • Kiguel, Miguel A

Abstract

Hyperinflationary processes usually occur in countries with extremely large budget deficits. In models of inflationary finance with rational expectations (e.g., Buiter [1987]), large budget deficits cannot lead to hyperinflation. The purpose of this paper is to reconcile the standard theoretical model with the stylized facts. It shows that by introducing a lag in the adjustment of the money market into the standard inflationary finance model, large budget deficits are indeed the main reason for hyperinflation. The paper also provides an explanation for the ineffectiveness of moderate reductions in the deficit in reducing inflation and argues that fiscal lags can be destabilizing. Copyright 1989 by Ohio State University Press.

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  • Kiguel, Miguel A, 1989. "Budget Deficits, Stability, and the Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 148-157, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:21:y:1989:i:2:p:148-57
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    Cited by:

    1. Pekarski, Sergey, 2011. "Budget deficits and inflation feedback," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 1-11, February.
    2. Hnatkovska, Viktoria & Lahiri, Amartya & Vegh, Carlos A., 2013. "Interest rate and the exchange rate: A non-monotonic tale," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 68-93.
    3. Josh Ryan-Collins, 2015. "Is Monetary Financing Inflationary? A Case Study of the Canadian Economy, 1935-75," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_848, Levy Economics Institute.
    4. Zink, Helmut, 1993. "Stability problems in hyperinflation models," Discussion Papers, Series I 268, University of Konstanz, Department of Economics.
    5. Alexandre Sokic, 2012. "The Monetary Analysis of Hyperinflation and the Appropriate Specification of the Demand for Money," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(2), pages 142-160, May.
    6. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 1999. "Government expenditure and the dynamics of high inflation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 333-358, April.
    7. Easterly, William R & Mauro, Paolo & Schmidt-Hebbel, Klaus, 1995. "Money Demand and Seigniorage-Maximizing Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 583-603, May.
    8. John Ashworth & Lynne Evans, 1998. "Functional form of the demand for real balances in Cagan's hyperinflation model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(12), pages 1617-1623.
    9. Sameer Kumar, 2022. "Rising Inflation: Lessons from India’s response to rising inflation in recent history," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 6(9), pages 01-04, September.
    10. Patrick Honohan, 1994. "The Fiscal Approach to Financial Intermediation Policy," Papers WP049, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    11. María-José Gutiérrez & Jesús Vázquez, 2004. "Explosive Hyperinflation, Inflation-Tax Curve, and Modeling the Use of Money," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 160(2), pages 311-326, June.
    12. Harashima, Taiji, 2007. "Hyperinflation, disinflation, deflation, etc.: A unified and micro-founded explanation for inflation," MPRA Paper 3836, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Abbas Alavirad, 2003. "The Effect of Inflation on Government Revenue and Expenditure: The Case of the Islamic Republic of Iran," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 27(4), pages 331-341, December.
    14. Oscar J. Arce, 2006. "Speculative Hyperinflations: When Can We Rule Them Out?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 376, Society for Computational Economics.
    15. Harashima, Taiji, 2008. "A Microfounded Mechanism of Observed Substantial Inflation Persistence," MPRA Paper 10668, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J, 1995. "Credibility and Changes in Policy Regime," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 176-208, February.
    17. Kiguel, Miguel A. & Neumeyer, Pablo Andres, 1989. "Inflation and seigniorage in Argentina," Policy Research Working Paper Series 289, The World Bank.
    18. Petrovic, Pavle & Vujosevic, Zorica, 1996. "The monetary dynamics in the Yugoslav hyperinflation of 1991-1993: The Cagan money demand," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 467-483, November.
    19. Gutiérrez Huerta, María José & Vázquez Pérez, Jesús, 2002. "Explosive Hyperinflation, Inflation Tax Laffer Curve and Modelling the use of Money," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    20. Rudiger Dornbusch & Ferico Sturzenegger & Holger Wolf, 1990. "Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 1-84.
    21. Alexandre Sokic, 2007. "Monetary hyperinflations and money essentiality," Working Papers of BETA 2007-21, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    22. Vazquez, Jesus, 1998. "How high can inflation get during hyperinflation? A transaction cost demand for money approach," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 433-451, August.
    23. Diehl, Markus, 1993. "Stabilization without crisis: The case of Vietnam," Kiel Working Papers 578, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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