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Money Growth Volatility and the Macroeconomy

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  • McMillin, W Douglas

Abstract

This study analyzes the effects of variability in money growth on the macroeconomy, for the period 1961:1-1984:4, within the context of a vector autoregressive model that contains variables typically included in a small macro model. Variance decompositions and historical decompositions are used to assess the impact of money growth variability. The variance decompositions suggest substantial effects of money growth variability on the long-term interest rate, output, and the price level. Historical decompositions for 1979:4-1984:4 suggest substantial effects of money growth variability on the interest rate and output, but smaller effects on the price level are found. Copyright 1988 by Ohio State University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • McMillin, W Douglas, 1988. "Money Growth Volatility and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 20(3), pages 319-335, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:20:y:1988:i:3:p:319-35
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    Cited by:

    1. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1999. "Are Asian stock market fluctuations due mainly to intra-regional contagion effects? Evidence based on Asian emerging stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 251-282, August.
    2. M. Nagy Eltony, "undated". "Oil Price Fluctuations and their Impact on the Macroeconomic Variables of Kuwait: A Case Study Using a VAR Model," API-Working Paper Series 9908, Arab Planning Institute - Kuwait, Information Center.
    3. Hoag, John H. & Wheeler, Mark, 1996. "Oil price shocks and employment: the case of Ohio coal mining," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 211-220, July.
    4. Oluwole Owoye, 1997. "Income velocity and the variability of money growth: evidence from less developed countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 485-496.
    5. Ansari, M. I., 1996. "Monetary vs. fiscal policy: Some evidence from vector autoregression for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 677-698.
    6. Sajjadur Rahman, 2018. "The Lucas hypothesis on monetary shocks: evidence from a GARCH-in-mean model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1411-1450, June.
    7. H. Atesoglu & Donald Dutkowsky, 1992. "The changing effect of money on aggregate output in the u.s," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 128(2), pages 221-236, June.
    8. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "Dynamic linkages and the propagation mechanism driving major international stock markets: An analysis of the pre- and post-crash eras," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 859-885.
    9. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Energy consumption, real income and temporal causality: results from a multi-country study based on cointegration and error-correction modelling techniques," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 165-183, July.
    10. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1996. "Empirical tests to discern the dynamic causal chain in macroeconomic activity: new evidence from Thailand and Malaysia based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correction modeling approach," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 531-560, October.
    11. Mahadevan, Renuka & Suardi, Sandy, 2008. "A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-174, March.
    12. George Hondroyiannis & Evangelia Papapetrou, 1999. "Fertility choice and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the U.S," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(1), pages 108-120, February.
    13. Masih, A. Mansur M. & Masih, Rumi, 2002. "Propagative causal price transmission among international stock markets: evidence from the pre- and postglobalization period," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 63-91.
    14. James E. Payne, 1995. "Velocity and the Variability of Yields on Financial and other Assets," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 39(1), pages 89-94, March.
    15. Kearney, Colm & Daly, Kevin, 1997. "Monetary volatility and real output volatility: An empirical model of the financial transmission mechanism in Australia," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 77-95.
    16. De la Cruz Gallegos Jose Luis & Ivanova Boncheva Antonina & Ruiz-Porras Antonio, 2008. "Competition between Latin America and China for US Direct Investment," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(2), pages 1-22, June.
    17. Masih, Rumi & Masih, Abul M. M., 1996. "Macroeconomic activity dynamics and Granger causality: New evidence from a small developing economy based on a vector error-correction modelling analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 407-426, July.
    18. Apostolos Serletis & Sajjadur Rahman, 2009. "The Output Effects of Money Growth Uncertainty: Evidence from a Multivariate GARCH-in-Mean VAR," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 607-630, November.
    19. Abul Masih & Rumi Masih, 1997. "A comparative analysis of the propagation of stock market fluctuations in alternative models of dynamic causal linkages," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 59-74.
    20. Dewan Abdullah, 1998. "Money Growth Variability and Stock Returns: An Innovations Accounting Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 89-104.
    21. Abul M. M. Masih & Rumi Masih, 1997. "Bivariate and Multivariate Tests of Money-Price Causality: Robust Evidence from a Small Developing Country," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(6), pages 803-825.
    22. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "On the temporal causal relationship between energy consumption, real income, and prices: Some new evidence from Asian-energy dependent NICs Based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correctio," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 417-440, August.

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