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Oil Price Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in Iran as a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Faraji , Maryam

    (Alzahra University)

  • Zahra , Afshari

    (Alzahra University)

Abstract

Oil price shocks are the major source of economic instability in oil exporting developing countries, including Iran. In this paper a Multi Sector Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model, with emphasis on optimization of oil sector as a producing sector is designed. Furthermore, an optimizing import sector is introduced into the model by considering the price rigidity in imported goods as a source of inefficiency in a New Keynesian open economy. The impact of oil price shocks on the dynamics of the economic variables is considered during 1988:1-2011:1. For this purpose, the Bayesian approach is used to estimate the model. The impulse response functions show that immediately after an oil price shock, output increases in the oil sector, while in the non-oil sector the result is reverse. Furthermore, GDP, consumption and inflation increase, while the employment and real exchange rate decreases immediately and finally, all the variables converge to their steady state values.

Suggested Citation

  • Faraji , Maryam & Zahra , Afshari, 2014. "Oil Price Shocks and Economic Fluctuations in Iran as a Small Open Oil Exporting Economy," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 9(2), pages 87-117, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:mbr:jmonec:v:9:y:2014:i:2:p:87-117
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei & Désiré Vencatachellum, 2008. "Optimal Pass-Through of Oil Prices in an Economy with Nominal Rigidities," Cahiers de recherche 0831, CIRPEE.
    2. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 353, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2009. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-151, January.
    4. Cologni, Alessandro & Manera, Matteo, 2013. "Exogenous oil shocks, fiscal policies and sector reallocations in oil producing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 42-57.
    5. Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Nakhli, Seyyed Reza & Rafat, Monireh & Dastjerdi, Rasul Bakhshi & Rafei, Meysam, 2021. "Oil sanctions and their transmission channels in the Iranian economy: A DSGE model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Impulse Response Functions; New Keynesian; MDSGE; Bayesian Approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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