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The Effective Causes on Business Cycles of Iran in Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) (in Persian)

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  • ghelich, vahab

    (Iran)

  • shakeri, abbas

    (Iran)

Abstract

Iranian economy as a state – petroleum economy with inflation and budget deficit challenges pass big and small Business Cycles in the last three decades. Obviously recognition of significant causes of these Business Cycles can to help to programmers and policy makers for the more accurate and efficient offers. This research by using of Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model recognizes The Effective Causes on Business Cycles of Iran. The conclusion shows between 1990 & 2012 budget deficit growth and real exchange rate growth were the most important causes of Business Cycles of Iran. According to this conclusion macroeconomic policy makers should attention to these causes for gaining more stability.

Suggested Citation

  • ghelich, vahab & shakeri, abbas, 2015. "The Effective Causes on Business Cycles of Iran in Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) (in Persian)," Journal of Monetary and Banking Research (فصلنامه پژوهش‌های پولی-بانکی), Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 8(25), pages 455-480, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:mbr:jmbres:v:8:y:2015:i:25:p:455-480
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus

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