Konsumsi, Harga dan Bentuk Pasar BBM di Indonesia "Suatu Analisa Kointegrasi Mengenai Dampak Krisis Ekonomi dan Kebijaksanaan Harga Terhadap Konsumsi BBM di dalam Negeri"

Elasticities of petroleum based fuels (BBM) demand in Indonesia are estimated by applying cointegration approach where the fluctuation of the demand is explained by explanatory variables that are derived from the Marshallian demand theory. The result of the Johansen (1995) cointegrating test shows that the demand for BBM cointegrates with its “explanatory variables” and, therefore, they are in the long-run equilibrium. From “proved cointegrating model” I get the long-run income and price elasticities of demand for BBM to be elastic (+1.351) and inelastic (–0.594) respectively. From error correction model, which is derived from cointegrating model, their short-run counterparts are +0.723 and –0.116 respectively. Compared to other relevant studies using the same approach, my results are in line with the cases of Kuwait (Almutairi and Eltony, 1996) and Denmark (Bentzen and Engsted, 1993). The empirical results indicate that the current economic crisis tends to decrease the demand for BBM relatively smaller in the short-run compared to that of in the long-run. These elasticities can help both the oil-related government agencies in dealing with the growth of BBM consumption and the BBM market players in making their revenue planning. Regarding the termination of Pertamina’s monopoly in the BBM market, I suggest to conduct an intensive study whether or not Pertamina as a non-profit maximizing monopolist has reached “natural-monopoly” or “quasi-natural monopoly” status. If Pertamina has reached this status, a restructuring market policy by allowing new players (in this case, by definition, they have higher average total cost) could decrease economic welfare of the society. Otherwise, a competitive market will be the best for everybody.