Analisis Dampak Intervensi Bank Sentral Dalam Penetapan Nilai Tukar Terhadap Ekspor - Impor Indonesia

In 1978 Indonesia changed its exchange rate system from "fixed exchange rate" to "managed floating exchange rate". Since then, the exchange rate is relatively determined through market mechanism. Eventhough the role of government intervention is declining in this system, the impact on the traded sector seemed to be quite significant. Based on the Portfolio Balance model to measure the degree of central bank intervention in determining exchange rate, and Bautista-Rana model to see the impact of central bank intervention on export-import, the study shows that after devaluation 1986, the rate of Rupiah to US dollar is undervalued. This is basically supporting the strategy to boost the growth in the non oil export. Moreover, the study shows that the effective exchange rate derived from the expected exchange rate (as a proxy of no central bank intervention) gives a better explanation toward the growth of export-import in Indonesia than the effective exchange rate derived from the actual exchange rate. But it does not necessarily mean that pure floating becomes the best system to be implemented in Indonesia since there is a possibility of exchange rate misalignment that could bring a negative impact to the Indonesian economy as a whole.