Mekanisme Penyesuaian Nilai Tukar Riil Terhadap Perubahan Terms of Trade: Studi Empiris di Indonesia

In an open economy, changes occurred in one country will affect the other countries. The impact could work through changes in terms of trade caused by shock in export prices. This situation often brings an unfavorable effect to the economy as the economy moved to its disequilibrium level. Therefore it is important to conduct economic-policy in order to maintain the external equilibrium. This could be carried out through exchange rate management. This article analyzes the exchange rate management in Indonesia. Using the model developed by Spenser (1983), the author shows that the devaluation took place on September 1986 brought only little changes in real exchange rate, which was not enough to keep the economy at equilibrium level. In other words, the real exchange rate at that time was overvalued. Had the barriers in international trade been removed, the outcome would be better, since the increasing price elasticity induced by the operating market mechanism would reduce the real exchange rate adjustment required to maintain the external equilibrium in the economy.