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Model Simulation of Exports and Domestic Demand Scenarios: the Case of Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Iwan Jaya Azis

    (Faculty of Economics University of Indonesia, Jakarta)

Abstract

Artikel ini menyajikan simulasi dengan menggunakan sebuah model makroekonometrik perekonomian Indonesia yang dikembangkan oleh Pusat Antar Universitas (PAU), bekerja sama dengan Fakultas Fkonomi Universitas Indonesia. Model yang terdiri atas 130 variabel, 104 antaranya variabel endogen, terbagi atas beberapa blok: permintaan agregat, moneter, fiskal, perdagangan luar negeri, harga dan pemasokan sektoral. Simulasi dilakukan untuk periode 1990-1996. Dengan mengubah-ubah asumsi tentang variabel eksogen, diperoleh tujuh skenario simulasi: (1) base­line, (2) slow world growth rate, (3) faster world growth rate, (4) industrial country protectionism, (5) import liberalization, (6) developed countries protectionism and import liberalization, dan (1) alternative market. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa pada semua skenario ada perubahan kecenderungan ke arah membesamya peranan faktor-faktor domestik, terutama meningkatnya investasi swasta, sebagai penggerak utama pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia. Terlihat bahwa pada suatu saat peranan faktor-faktor domestik akan mengatasi faktor-faktor eksternal. Ketujuh skenario memberikan hasil yang berbeda mengenai kapan hal ini terjadi. Dalam skenario-skenario (4) dan (6) titik perubahan ini akan terjadi lebih cepat (1992), sementara dalam skenario (3) titik perubahan tersebut akan terjadi pada tahun 1995.

Suggested Citation

  • Iwan Jaya Azis, 1991. "Model Simulation of Exports and Domestic Demand Scenarios: the Case of Indonesia," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 39, pages 259-276, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:lpe:efijnl:199112
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