Pelarian Modal dari Indonesia : Estimasi dan Masalahnya

The Phenomenon of capital flight and the inability to reverse the capital out­flows may also become a factor in the provision of new lending to countries that need external finance to support their adjustment. For examples, in Argentina, Mexico, Philippines and Venezuela, capital flight has reached 30 percent from their debt outstanding. There is no generally accepted definition of capital flight. Different writers often use different concepts when discussing, and particularly when measuring it. In general, capital flight is defined as short-term capital outflows for speculative purposes, or outflows resulting from economic or political uncertainties in the home country. In other word, it is money that "fleeing" from the country rather than external investment guided by long-term economic consideration. According to this definition, it should consist of all short-term private capital outflows plus net error and omissions in the BOPs Account. This estimation method has some weakness, particularly in the Net Error and Omissions. To reduce the weakness, we excluded error and omissions from the oil and gas sector. Using Cuddington model with some modification, we found that capital flight from Indonesia caused by financial repression and high inflation rate. This finding is not far from other studies in several countries. Cuddington found that beside financial repression and high interest rate, overvaluation of exchange rate and risk factor might be other factors that lead to capital flight