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Forecast Accuracy of Structural Econometric Models and Time Series Models

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  • Asdollah Heidari

Abstract

Dalam dasawarsa yang lalu model-model ekonomi struktural (Structural Econometric Models, SEM.) telah semakin banyak digunakan oleh berbagai kalangan untuk keperluan prakiraan dan pengambilan keputusan. Penulis melalui studi kepustakaan membahas ketelitian SEM dengan Time Series Equations (TSE) models untuk prakiraan jangka panjang dan pendek. Dinyatakan bahwa pada banyak kasus SEM lebih baik daripada TSE untuk prakiraan jangka panjang. Juga, kombinasi dari beberapa tipe prakiraan dapat dilakukan untuk memperoleh suatu prakiraan yang memdiki keunggulan dari masing-masing penyusunnya. Penulis menyatakan pula bahwa ada beberapa kekurangan yang harus diteliti untuk perbaikannya. Yang pertama adalah kriteria yang cukup dan perlu untuk evaluasi - dan yang kedua, penyusunan suatu bentuk yang tepat dari "cost and benefit junctiorf' untuk tipe-tipe prakiraan SEM. Penelitian yang lain adalah dampak dari kombinasi prakiraan SEM dan TSE yang menyangkut ketelitian prakiraan dari prakiraan subyektif dan obyektif

Suggested Citation

  • Asdollah Heidari, 1986. "Forecast Accuracy of Structural Econometric Models and Time Series Models," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 34, pages 211-227.
    • Handle: RePEc:lpe:efijnl:198609
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    Keywords

    model; econometric; forecast;
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