Will The Oil Price Fall In The Long Run

On the whole the analysis of forces determining behavior on the world petroleum market and the predictions based on that analysis have held up quite well over the last six months. Initially there was some slight strengthening of prices from those quoted, and more recently some slightweakening of prices. On the whole production cut backs necessary to sustain that price performance have been accepted by producers with good grace. The major current threat to holding the price line arises from a financial crisis in several smaller producing countries due toprofligate spending of their new wealth, and not from a temptation to cheat a little.