IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/lje/journl/v13y2008i1p57-85.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Wheat Production in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Falak Sher

    (Department of Economics, University of Sargodha, Pakistan.)

  • Eatzaz Ahmad

    (Professor of Economics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan.)

Abstract

This study analyzes the future prospects of wheat production in Pakistan. Parameters of the forecasting model are obtained by estimating a Cobb-Douglas production function for wheat, while future values of various inputs are obtained as dynamic forecasts on the basis of separate ARIMA estimates for each input and for each province. Input forecasts and parameters of the wheat production function are then used to generate wheat forecasts. The results of the study show that the most important variables for predicting wheat production per hectare (in order of importance) are: lagged output, labor force, use of tractors, and sum of the rainfall in the months of November to March. The null hypotheses of common coefficients across provinces for most of the variables cannot be rejected, implying that all variables play the same role in wheat production in all the four provinces. Forecasting performance of the model based on out-of-sample forecasts for the period 2005-06 is highly satisfactory with 1.81% mean absolute error. The future forecasts for the period of 2007-15 show steady growth of 1.6%, indicating that Pakistan will face a slight shortage of wheat output in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Falak Sher & Eatzaz Ahmad, 2008. "Forecasting Wheat Production in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 57-85, Jan-Jun.
    • Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:13:y:2008:i:1:p:57-85
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://121.52.153.179/JOURNAL/Vol13-No1/03%20Forecasting%20Wheat.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nida Akram & Muhammad Waqar Akram & Hongshu Wang & Ayesha Mehmood, 2019. "Does Land Tenure Systems Affect Sustainable Agricultural Development?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-15, July.
    2. Muhammad Aamir, Shahzad & Waqar, Akram & Muhammad, Khan, 2016. "Technical Efficiency Analysis of Wheat Farms in the Punjab, Pakistan: DEA Approach," MPRA Paper 81846, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Oct 2017.
    3. Nedeljković Miroslav & Ćosić Milovoje & Marin Florentina-Emilia, 2024. "Raspberry Production Trends in Serbia," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 18(1), pages 3235-3241.
    4. Muhammad Waqar Akram & Nida Akram & Wang Hongshu & Shahla Andleeb & Khalil ur Rehman & Umair Kashif & Ayesha Mehmood, 2019. "Impact of Land Use Rights on the Investment and Efficiency of Organic Farming," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(24), pages 1-18, December.
    5. Muhammad Iftikhar ul Husnain & Muhammad Khan, "undated". "The Public and Private Benefits from Organic Farming in Pakistan," Working papers 100, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    6. repec:mth:jas888:v:7:y:2019:i:1:p:115-127 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wheat; ARIMA; Production Function; Pakistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • Q16 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:13:y:2008:i:1:p:57-85. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Shahid Salahuddin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsecopk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.