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Long-Run Movement and Predictability of Bond Spread for BRICS and PIIGS: The Role of Economic, Financial and Political Risks

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  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, 0002, South Africa)

  • Sheung-Chi Chow
  • Tahir Suleman
  • Wing-Keung Wong

Abstract

We examine co-movement and predictability of Bond Spread of BRICS and PIIGS with respect to political risk (PR), financial risk (FR), and economic risk (ER). Our linear Granger causality findings imply that PR is the most important risk in predicting bond spread, followed by ER in both BRICS and in PIIGS, while FR is useful in predicting bond spread in BRICS only. Our nonlinear individual causality results infer that ER is the most important risk in predicting bond spread, followed by FR, and PR. We make a conjecture that linear and nonlinear causality are independent and our findings support this.

Suggested Citation

  • Rangan Gupta & Sheung-Chi Chow & Tahir Suleman & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Long-Run Movement and Predictability of Bond Spread for BRICS and PIIGS: The Role of Economic, Financial and Political Risks," Journal of Reviews on Global Economics, Lifescience Global, vol. 8, pages 239-257.
    • Handle: RePEc:lif:jrgelg:v:8:y:2019:p:239-257
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    File URL: https://www.lifescienceglobal.com/independent-journals/journal-of-reviews-on-global-economics/volume-8/85-abstract/jrge/3531-abstract-long-run-movement-and-predictability-of-bond-spread-for-brics-and-piigs-the-role-of-economic-financial-and-political-risks
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    Cited by:

    1. Nguyen Huu Hau & Tran Trung Tinh & Hoa Anh Tuong & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "Review of Matrix Theory with Applications in Education and Decision Sciences," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 24(1), pages 28-69, March.
    2. Adhiraj Sodhi & Cesario Mateus & Irina Mateus & Aleksandar Stojanovic, 2023. "Determinants of Repurchase Size: Evidence from the UK," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(9), pages 1-29, September.
    3. Kim-Hung Pho & Tuan-Kiet Tran & Thi Diem-Chinh Ho & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Optimal Solution Techniques in Decision Sciences A Review," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(1), pages 114-161, March.
    4. Andy Wui-Wing Cheng & Nikolai Sheung-Chi Chow & David Kam-Hung Chui & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "The Three Musketeers Relationships between Hong Kong, Shanghai and Shenzhen Before and After Shanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connect," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-20, July.
    5. Wenjing Xie & João Paulo Vieito & Ephraim Clark & Wing-Keung Wong, 2020. "Could Mergers Become More Sustainable? A Study of the Stock Exchange Mergers of NASDAQ and OMX," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-25, October.
    6. Kim-Hung Pho & Thi Diem-Chinh Ho & Tuan-Kiet Tran & Wing-Keung Wong, 2019. "Moment Generating Function, Expectation And Variance Of Ubiquitous Distributions With Applications In Decision Sciences: A Review," Advances in Decision Sciences, Asia University, Taiwan, vol. 23(2), pages 65-150, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Country Risk; Bond Spread; Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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