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Presidential Elections and Municipal Development: The Colombian Case (1986-2014)

Author

Listed:
  • Luis Eduardo Sandoval Garrido

    (Universidad Militar Nueva Granada)

  • Margarita Marín-Jaramillo

    (Universidad Nacional de Colombia)

Abstract

Can the probability of voting for a candidate based on the municipal conditions of violence and development be explain? This paper analyses the impact of economic development and violence at the municipal level on voting patterns in presidential elections in Colombia for the period 1986-2014. It uses Principal Components Analysis (PCA) methodology and generates a municipal voting index, which is used as main input together with municipal development and violence variables in a Bayesian beta model. In the end, it is concluded that with a higher level of education and access to the media, the probability of voting for right-wing candidates increases and the probability of voting for liberal candidates is less likely.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Sandoval Garrido & Margarita Marín-Jaramillo, 2022. "Presidential Elections and Municipal Development: The Colombian Case (1986-2014)," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 97, pages 113-148, July-Dece.
    • Handle: RePEc:lde:journl:y:2022:i:97:p:113-148
    DOI: 10.17533/udea.le.n97a346128
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Paulo Rodrigues & Ana Lima, 2009. "Analysis of an European union election using principal component analysis," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 50(4), pages 895-904, August.
    2. repec:reg:rpubli:460 is not listed on IDEAS
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    principal Components; electoral behavior; development; violence.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • K14 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Criminal Law

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