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A model for forecasting electricity prices in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Barrientos
  • Edwin Rodas
  • Esteban Velilla
  • Mauricio Lopera
  • Fernando Villada

Abstract

This paper investigates the factors that determine electric power prices in the Colombian market. In addition, we carry out a long-run forecasting analysis to pool-traded electric power prices by using Vector Error Correction estimation and neuronal networks. Given the optimistic atmosphere that surrounds the Colombian economy for the coming years, our conclusion is that long-run electric power prices will exhibit an upward trend

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Barrientos & Edwin Rodas & Esteban Velilla & Mauricio Lopera & Fernando Villada, 2012. "A model for forecasting electricity prices in Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 77, pages 91-127.
    • Handle: RePEc:lde:journl:y:2012:i:77:p:91-127
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    File URL: https://revistas.udea.edu.co/index.php/lecturasdeeconomia/issue/view/1332
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    price; demand; supply; impulse response function; vectors; neuronal networks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • L94 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Electric Utilities

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