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On model-consistent expectations in macroeconomics

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  • Daniel Heymann, Gabriel Montes-Rojas

    (IIEP-BAIRES-CONICET)

Abstract

n this paper we explore an alternative version of model- consistency of expectations, which allows the expectation- generating schemes to vary according to the state of accepted macroeconomic analysis. We perform an econometric exercise using standard existing models of different generations (built for the US economy) as potential expectations- forming tools. The discussion and implementation of alternative forms of model- consistency is the main purpose of the paper. As for the results, they suggest an absence of strong sensitivity to the expectations- generating schemes in past decades, while the performance of the models become problematic in recent times marked by the Great Recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Heymann, Gabriel Montes-Rojas, 2018. "On model-consistent expectations in macroeconomics," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 64, pages 22-45, January-D.
    • Handle: RePEc:lap:journl:613
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    File URL: https://revistas.unlp.edu.ar/Economica/article/view/6014/5553
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    Cited by:

    1. Juan Brichetti & Daniel Heymann & Pedro Juarros & Gustavo Montero, 2019. "Expectations, Coordination Failures and Macro Crises," Documentos de trabajo del Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET) 2019-46, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Instituto Interdisciplinario de Economía Política IIEP (UBA-CONICET).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Model-consistency; Rational expectations; Forecasts; Non-linear testing; Wald tests.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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