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Az inflációs cél követésének optimális horizontja Magyarországon
[The optimal horizon for inflation targeting in Hungary]

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  • Várpalotai, Viktor

Abstract

A tanulmány a magyarországi inflációs cél követésének optimális horizontját kívánja meghatározni makro- és vektor-autoregresszív modellek felhasználásával. Batini- Nelson [2000] elemzési keretét és definícióit veszi alapul, ezek alkalmazásával származtat a modellekből az inflációs cél követéséhez optimális horizontokat. Eredményeink szerint, adott feltevéseink mellett, jóléti szempontból elfogadható az a gyakorlat, hogy az MNB a másfél-két évvel előre várt inflációs folyamatokat értékelve dönt a jegybanki irányadó instrumentumról, az előre jelzett infláció és az inflációs cél közötti különbséggel indokolva a monetáris feltételek megváltoztatását. Az alkalmazott másfél-két éves horizont a különféle várható sokkok nagy része esetén már kellő időt nyújt arra, hogy a jegybank az inflációt jóléti szempontból optimálisan alakítsa a célkitűzéseknek megfelelő értékhez. Ugyanakkor a monetáris politika irányítóinak fel kell készülniük olyan, nem elhanyagolható valószínűséggel bekövetkező sokkokra, amelyekre ha a jegybank jóléti szempontból optimálisan reagál, akkor az infláció másfél-két évnél hosszabban is eltérhet a kitűzött céltól. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E37, E52, E58.

Suggested Citation

  • Várpalotai, Viktor, 2006. "Az inflációs cél követésének optimális horizontja Magyarországon [The optimal horizon for inflation targeting in Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1135-1154.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:887
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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