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Jó úton járunk? Magyarország euróstratégiája
[Are we on the right track? Hungary s Euro strategy]

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  • Mihályi, Péter

Abstract

Magyarország fokozatos fiskális konszolidáción keresztül, rugalmas árfolyamrendszerben, inflációs célt követő politikával kívánja bizonyítani hitelességét és teljesíteni a maastrichti kritériumokat. Ez tévút, mert magában rejti mind a négy mutató kilengésének lehetőségét. A hitelesség 2001 táján elveszett, a nominális konvergenciakritériumok tekintetében 2005-ben a helyzet rosszabb, mint korábban. A négy éve követett stratégia nem alkalmas a hitelesség visszaszerzésére, s így végső soron a nominális konvergenciakritériumok teljesítésére sem. A kormány és a jegybank konfliktusa inkább következménye, semmint oka a négy éve követett út ellehetetlenülésének. A hitelességet most már csak a valutatábla-rendszerre (currency board) való áttéréssel lehet visszaszerezni. A gazdaságpolitika szabadsága most már annak meghatározására szűkült le, hogy ennek időpontját mikorra tűzi ki. A valutatábla bevezetéséhez szükséges politikai, jogi és intézményi feltételek szisztematikus áttekintése nem e tanulmány feladata. A másik lehetőség a spontán eurósítás felgyorsítása. Ez a kevésbé jó megoldás. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E52, E63, E66.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihályi, Péter, 2005. "Jó úton járunk? Magyarország euróstratégiája [Are we on the right track? Hungary s Euro strategy]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 712-731.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:778
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Halpern, László & Wyplosz, Charles, 1995. "Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates in Transition," CEPR Discussion Papers 1145, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Michael Reutter & Hans-Werner Sinn, 2000. "The Minimum Inflation Rate for Euroland," CESifo Working Paper Series 377, CESifo.
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    4. Darvas, Zsolt & Szapáry, György, 2004. "Konjunktúraciklusok együttmozgása a régi és új EU-tagországokban [Business cycle harmonization in new and old EU member-states]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 415-448.
    5. Schuknecht, Ludger & Tanzi, Vito, 2005. "Reforming public expenditure in industrialised countries: are there trade-offs?," Working Paper Series 435, European Central Bank.
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    7. Laszlo Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 2001. "Economic Transformation and Real Exchange Rates in the 2000s: The Balassa-Samuelson Connection," ECE Discussion Papers Series 2001_1, UNECE.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Mihalyi, 2012. "The Causes of Slow Growth in Hungary during the Post-Communist Transformation Period," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1216, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions

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