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Dominóhatás a magyar bankközi piacon
[The domino effect on the Hungarian interbank market]

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  • Lublóy, Ágnes

Abstract

A tanulmány a magyar bankközi piacon keresztüli fertőzés kvantitatív mérésére vállalkozik. A bankok közötti körkörös hitelszerződések láncolata ugyanis előidézhet olyan helyzetet, amelyben néhány intézmény csődje akár az egész bankszektort magával rántja. A tanulmány a szimuláció módszerének felhasználásával minden bank egyszeri, idioszinkratikus csődjének hatását követi nyomon. A fertőzés súlyosságát az első és a második körös fertőzések száma mellett a bankrendszer tőkevesztése, valamint az érintett bankok eszközállományának bankrendszeren belüli aránya mutatja. A szerző a dominóhatás mértékét egy módosított csőddefiníció mellett, illetve a piaci várakozások figyelembevételével is megvizsgálja. Külön forgatókönyvekben elemzi, hogy mi történne, ha egyszerre több, azonos kitettségi profilú bank jutna csődbe. Magyarországon a dominóhatás - mind abszolút, mind relatív értelemben - még a meglehetősen szélsőséges esetekben is korlátozott, ami leginkább a bankok alapvető tőkéjükhöz viszonyított alacsony bankközi kitettségeivel magyarázható. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C10, G21.

Suggested Citation

  • Lublóy, Ágnes, 2005. "Dominóhatás a magyar bankközi piacon [The domino effect on the Hungarian interbank market]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(4), pages 377-401.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:758
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2004. "Estimating bilateral exposures in the German interbank market: Is there a danger of contagion?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 827-849, August.
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    7. Freixas, Xavier & Parigi, Bruno M & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2000. "Systemic Risk, Interbank Relations, and Liquidity Provision by the Central Bank," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(3), pages 611-638, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Havran, Dániel & Erb, Tamás, 2015. "Mit veszítünk a piaci súrlódásokkal?. A pénzügyi piacok mikrostruktúrája [Trading mechanisms and market frictions. Microstructure of the financial markets]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 229-262.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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