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Mekkora lehet Magyarországon a fenntartható növekedés üteme? - I. A fenntartható gazdasági növekedés elméleti kérdései
[How high can Hungary’s sustainable growth rate be? I. Theoretical questions about sustainable economic growth]

Author

Listed:
  • Erdős, Tibor

Abstract

A fenntartható gazdasági növekedés központi kérdése a gazdasági növekedés hosszabb távon elérhető üteme a belső és külső egyensúly fenntartása mellett és a természeti környezet helyrehozhatatlan károsodása nélkül. A növekedés ütemét végső soron a technikai fejlődés határozza meg adott foglalkoztatás mellett, az ütem nagysága azonban nem független a beruházások arányától sem. Ám itt „fordított összefüggés” érvényesül, mert nem a beruházások arányából kiindulva érthető meg az ütem nagysága, hanem - az általános és marginális tőkehatékonyság közvetítésével - az ütem a meghatározó a beruházás GDP-hez viszonyított arányával szemben. Így kerülnek előtérbe a szükséges beruházások forrásai, ezekkel és a belső megtakarításokkal együtt a külső források. A források szűkössége - számos tényező miatt - általában jellemző a fejlett gazdaságokhoz felzárkózó országokra, ezért külön jelentősége van a beruházások hatékonyságának, valamint a belső forrásokat növelő és a hatékonyságot javító tényezőknek. Ez utóbbiakkal kapcsolatban az intézményrendszer reformjának és az emberi tőke fejlesztésének kiemelkedő a szerepe. Az összefüggések világosság teszik: a növekedés üteme a belső és külső feltételrendszerből kiindulva érthető meg - a növekedés endogén jellegű. A tanulmány olyan elméleti összefüggéseket emel ki, amelyek segítik a magyar gazdaság növekedési képességének meghatározását. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E66, O11, O31, O38.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdős, Tibor, 2004. "Mekkora lehet Magyarországon a fenntartható növekedés üteme? - I. A fenntartható gazdasági növekedés elméleti kérdései [How high can Hungary’s sustainable growth rate be? I. Theoretical questions a," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(5), pages 389-414.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:681
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1998. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Study," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522543, December.
    3. Bela Balassa, 1964. "The Purchasing-Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(6), pages 584-584.
    4. László Halpern & Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Transition Economies," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(4), pages 430-461, December.
    5. F. A von Hayek, 1932. "A Note on the Development of the Doctrine of "Forced Saving"," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 47(1), pages 123-133.
    6. Simon, András & Darvas, Zsolt, 1999. "Tőkeállomány, megtakarítás és gazdasági növekedés [Capital stock, savings and economic growth]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 749-771.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O31 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
    • O38 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Government Policy

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