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Az előre bejelentett csúszó árfolyamrendszer Magyarországon
[Preannounced crawlling peg regime in Hungary]

Author

Listed:
  • Kopits, György

Abstract

Az előre bejelentett csúszó árfolyamrendszer központi helyet foglal el a magyar hatóságok által 1995 márciusában bevezetett kiigazítási csomagban. Az új rendszer fő céljai: a versenyképesség helyreállítása, megtartása és egyúttal az inflációs várakozások fékezése, illetve az egész makrogazdaságpolitika szavahihetőségének biztosítása. A rendszer paraméterei (kiinduló egyszeri leértékelés, bejelentett csúszás mértéke, intervenciós sáv), az azonnali és határidős deviza, illetve államkötvénypiacok nagyjából azt mutatják, hogy az új rendszer sikeresen indult Magyarországon. Külföldi tapasztalatok (délamerikai országok, Portugália, Izrael, Lengyelország) azt sugallják, hogy az árfolyamrendszer további sikere az államháztartási hiány jelentős visszaszorításának és fegyelmezett bérpolitika alkalmazásának szoros függvénye. Ezenkívül, rövid távon lényeges körültekintő kamatláb politikát folytatni, amely nem kockáztat gyors tőkekiáramlásokat. A tapasztalatokból arra is lehet következtetni, hogy az új rendszer hitelességének szilárd megalapozása előtt ajánlatos az újabb be nem jelentett leértékelést, a bejelentett havi leértékelés mértékének felemelését vagy az intervenciós sáv bővítését elkerülni.

Suggested Citation

  • Kopits, György, 1995. "Az előre bejelentett csúszó árfolyamrendszer Magyarországon [Preannounced crawlling peg regime in Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 797-818.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:44
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frenkel, Jacob A., 1982. "The order of economic liberalization: Lessons from Chile and Argentina : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 199-201, January.
    2. Miguel A. Savastano, 1992. "Collapse of a Crawling Peg Regime in the Presence of a Government Budget Constraint," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 79-100, March.
    3. Mr. Hans O. Schmitt, 1981. "Economic Stabilization and Growth in Portugal," IMF Occasional Papers 1981/001, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1982. "Stabilization policies in developing countries: What have we learned?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 701-708, September.
    5. Ronald I. McKinnon, 1981. "Monetary Control and the Crawling Peg," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: John Williamson (ed.), Exchange Rate Rules, chapter 2, pages 38-54, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Mr. Charalambos Christofides & Mr. Paul Mylonas & Ms. Inci Ötker & Mr. Liam P. Ebrill & Mr. Gerd Schwartz & Mr. Ajai Chopra, 1994. "Poland: The Path to a Market Economy," IMF Occasional Papers 1994/003, International Monetary Fund.
    7. McKinnon, Ronald I., 1982. "The order of economic liberalization: Lessons from Chile and Argentina," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 159-186, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Barabás, Gyula, 1996. "Kamatparitás lebegő és csúszó leértékeléses árfolyamrendszerben [Interest parity in floating and in crawling-peg foreign exchange rate régimes]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 972-994.
    2. Darvas, Zsolt, 1996. "Kamatkülönbség és árfolyam-várakozások az előre bejelentett kúszó árfolyamrendszerben [Interest differential and exchange rate expectations in the preannounced crawling band system of Hungary]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(10), pages 920-947.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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