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Rövid vagy hosszú ciklus?. Új előrejelzés az ezredfordulóra
[Short or long cycle?. A new forecast for the turn of the century]

Author

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  • Bródy, András

Abstract

A statisztikai jelentések évente számolnak be az ország gazdaságáról. Ez az éves kötöttség korlátozza az idősorok és ingadozásuk mérését és értelmezését. Mivel a folyamatok tartama általában nem pontos többszöröse az évnek, nehéz a vélt ciklusok hosszát megállapítani. A ritka mérés következtében óhatatlanul összekeverednek a különböző hosszúságú folyamatok. A cikk az egészen rövid ciklusokat vizsgálja. Bemutat egy újabb előrejelzést is, ez a GDP idősorához illesztett rövid ciklusokra támaszkodik.

Suggested Citation

  • Bródy, András, 1999. "Rövid vagy hosszú ciklus?. Új előrejelzés az ezredfordulóra [Short or long cycle?. A new forecast for the turn of the century]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(7), pages 701-708.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:262
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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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