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A költségvetés finanszírozási rendszerének átalakítása és az eladósodás megfékezése II. rész. Magyarország tapasztalatai a piacgazdasági átmenet időszakában
[Transformation of the financing system of the state budget and the curbingof inflation. Part II. Hungary's experiences in the period of transition to market economy]

Author

Listed:
  • Barabás, Gyula
  • Hamecz, István
  • Neményi, Judit

Abstract

A cikk második részében az adósságráta (államadósság/GDP) alakulását meghatározó tényezőket elemzik a szerzők, majd összefoglalják a jövőbeli fiskális politika szempontjából alapvető következtetéseiket. Az államadósság implicit reálkamatai (amelyek eltérnek a közvetlenül érzékelhető mindenkori kamatoktól) mindvégig meghaladták a növekedést, ami az adósságráta folyamatos emelkedését idézte elő. Ezt a hatást csak 1995-től mérsékelte a költségvetés elsődleges egyenlegében elért többlet. Az adósságráta az utóbbi három évben elért jelentős mérséklésének a legfontosabb eleme azonban a privatizációs bevételek adósságtörlesztésre való felhasználása volt. A fenntartható növekedés feltételeinek megteremtése és a fejlett országokhoz való felzárkózás folyamatossága az államadósság további mérséklését kívánja meg. Ez a költségvetés GDP-hez mért hiányának további csökkentése és az elsődleges egyenlegben 1,5-2 százalékos strukturális többlet mellett látszik megvalósíthatónak közép távon, figyelembe véve a fenntarthatósági szempontokat, a dezinflációs törekvéseket és azt, hogy a finanszírozás rendkívüli forrásai például a privatizációs bevételek a közeljövőben elapadnak.

Suggested Citation

  • Barabás, Gyula & Hamecz, István & Neményi, Judit, 1998. "A költségvetés finanszírozási rendszerének átalakítása és az eladósodás megfékezése II. rész. Magyarország tapasztalatai a piacgazdasági átmenet időszakában [Transformation of the financing system ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(9), pages 789-802.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:182
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Alesina & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Adjustments in OECD Countries: Composition and Macroeconomic Effects," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(2), pages 210-248, June.
    2. George Kopits, 1994. "Midway in the Transition," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(6), pages 29-55, December.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • P24 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation
    • P35 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Public Finance

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