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Közvélemény-kutatások statisztikai szemszögből - ahol biztosan hibáztak
[Surveys viewed statistically - where a mistake was made]

Author

Listed:
  • Medvegyev, Péter
  • Boros, Péter

Abstract

Jelen munka a brexitet és az amerikai elnökválasztást megelőző közvélemény-kutatások hibás előrejelzéseivel és a hibák okaival foglalkozik. Megvizsgáljuk az elemi statisztikai módszer, a populációarány-becslés szakirodalmát, és rámutatunk arra, hogy a közvélemény-kutatások során felhasznált minta nagysága elmaradt a pontos becsléshez szükséges szinttől. Bemutatjuk, hogy egy ilyen jellegű becslés technikája mögött meghúzódó normális eloszlás feltételezése nem minden esetben helytálló, így következtetéseink a statisztikai módszerek széles körét érintik.* Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: C83, D72.

Suggested Citation

  • Medvegyev, Péter & Boros, Péter, 2017. "Közvélemény-kutatások statisztikai szemszögből - ahol biztosan hibáztak [Surveys viewed statistically - where a mistake was made]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1265-1284.
    • Handle: RePEc:ksa:szemle:1739
    DOI: 10.18414/KSZ.2017.12.1265
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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