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Les prévisions de recettes fiscales ont-elles une couleur politique? Une analyse empirique dans le contexte des cantons suisses

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Abstract

Predicting available tax revenue accurately is a key step of fiscal policy. Misestimating tax revenue may generate undesirable fiscal imbalance. In this paper, we explore the relationship between the ideology of the finance minister and tax revenue projection errors, and assess how the stringency of fiscal rules alters this relationship. We use a panel dataset of 26 Swiss cantons over the period 1980–2007 as well as a new dataset of 99 finance ministers at the cantonal level. We identify a rather counter-intuitive positive effect of the ideology of the finance minister on tax revenue projection errors in the sense that a more left-wing finance minister produces relatively more conservative forecasts. We also find that fiscal rules reduce the effect of ideology on tax revenue projection errors. Therefore fiscal rules may be an efficient instrument to improve the quality and the transparency of the budgeting process.

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  • Florian Chatagny, 2015. "Les prévisions de recettes fiscales ont-elles une couleur politique? Une analyse empirique dans le contexte des cantons suisses," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 9(3), pages 127-137, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:kof:anskof:v:9:y:2015:i:3:p:127-137
    DOI: 10.3929/ethz-a-005427569
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    Keywords

    Tax Revenue Projection; Finance minister; Ideology; Fiscal rules;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

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