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Medium Term Projections of Demand for Labor With Higher Education and of Employed Population in Romania

Author

Listed:
  • Ion Ghizdeanu
  • Dorin Jula
  • Marioara Iordan
  • Mihaela Nona Chilian
  • Tiberiu Diaconescu

    ("Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University)

Abstract

The projection model of demand for labor with higher education (MCFMSS) and medium-term forecasts make a consistent pattern, circumscribed to the standard macroeconomic theories, which adequately reflect the peculiarities of the Romanian economy and generates plausible results. Due to its complexity, the model is a true macromodel which relates the economic growth forecast with that of growth in employment in a detailed structure. The model has as the main exogenous variables the economy-wide GDP and gross value added by sectors. Starting from a Cobb-Douglas production function, the model proposes a growth scenario of employed population mainly to achieve the Europe 2020 objectives, based on the growth of activity rate, on a moderate GDP growth and on lower unemployment. Three scenarios were considered for all exogenous variables - reserved, moderate and optimistic, the moderate scenario being preferred because the data sets used were short.

Suggested Citation

  • Ion Ghizdeanu & Dorin Jula & Marioara Iordan & Mihaela Nona Chilian & Tiberiu Diaconescu, 2013. "Medium Term Projections of Demand for Labor With Higher Education and of Employed Population in Romania," Knowledge Horizons - Economics, Faculty of Finance, Banking and Accountancy Bucharest,"Dimitrie Cantemir" Christian University Bucharest, vol. 5(2), pages 112-118, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:khe:journl:v:5:y:2013:i:2:p:112-118
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor demand; labor projection models; GDP and VAB forecast; employed population forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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